G-8 Summit successful, but no easy solution to global warming says Larsen

     Prime Minister Tony Blair applauded the resolve of recent G-8 Summit leaders for committing themselves to the issue of global warming. The summit produced a resolution to take urgent action to address climate change, reduce greenhouse gas emissions, improve the global environment, enhance energy security and cut air pollution. According to Dr. Michael Larsen, however, there are no easy answers to this complex problem.
     “First, scientists must establish irrefutably that there is a global warming problem,” said Larsen, who is an associate professor of biological sciences at Campbell University. “Global warming as a concept is pretty controversial. The definitive data to support it just isn’t there like it is with other environmental concerns like water pollution and depletion of the polar ozone layers,” Larsen said. “The problem with the data I’ve seen is that the consensus in the scientific community is about 50/50 that extensive global warming due to manmade activity really exists.”
     Using the same data and a variety  of predictive computer models, many scientists feel global warming is a real problem, while others attribute possible changes like rises in water temperature and the melting of polar ice caps to factors that could be part of naturally occurring climate changes, Larsen added.
     “Moreover, there are real scientific uncertainties with the overall concept of ‘global warming,’” said Larsen. “Is the earth really warming? If global warming is a fact, how much more warming will occur and how fast, and what are the detrimental and beneficial effects of this change in climate? Many experts in the field feel it will be many years, if not decades, before we can better answer these questions.”
     About 1000 A.D. during the age of Viking exploration and settlement in the New World, Greenland actually supported the growth of vineyards and crops on what is now an ice cap, Larsen pointed out.
      “Are we simply in a warm period of an ever-changing global climate cycle like the conditions that affected Greenland?” he postulated. “There has also been a gradual rise in carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere over the past 100 years, but scientists aren’t all convinced that the increase is responsible for a rise in temperature. That’s where you have the big differences of opinion.”
     It can be demonstrated that so-called greenhouse gases like water vapor, methane, carbon dioxide and nitric oxides can cause heat to be trapped in the atmosphere. It has also been proven that temperature levels near cities are higher than levels outside of cities. But it hasn’t been proven that these temperature increases are caused by increased carbon dioxide emissions. Though automobiles play a key role, it could be the fact that there are more buildings, concrete and asphalt located in cities than in the country.
    In addition to the lack of definitive data, there are economic and political issues to consider, Larsen added. On October 30, 2003, Senators Joe Lieberman and John McCain brought a revised version of their Climate Stewardship Act to a vote in the United States Senate. The legislation required the administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency to establish regulations to limit the greenhouse gas emissions from the electricity generation, transportation, industrial and commercial economic sectors by the year 2010. The bill was defeated by a vote of 43 to 55. But the legislation is again being considered, and in May 2005, it was referred to a Senate committee and passed on to the Committee on Environment and Public Works.
    “The measures in the bill sound good,” said Larsen. “But these actions will have significant impact on oil prices and the economy. Those who don’t support the Kyoto Protocols, for example, take that stance because of the secondary economic impact of the agreement on things like gas prices at the pump and possible job losses.”
On the other hand, reducing greenhouse gases over time through methods such as sustainable agriculture, reducing deforestation worldwide, hybrid vehicles, encouraging mass transit and transitioning to renewable alternatives to fossil fuels is a step in the right direction, Larsen concluded.
     “If I had an alternative fuel that would reduce coal and oil consumption and be cost competitive today, I would jump right on the bandwagon, but I don’t believe it is that simple,” he said. “It is going to take a combination of efforts. These include incentives for use of fuel-efficient vehicles, increased energy efficiency in homes and businesses, protection and conservation of forests that utilize CO2 through photosynthesis and accelerated research into viable renewable energy technologies.”
    Vigorous support for such research and development in both the private and public sectors on the science of global warming is critical, Larsen added. “We have a way to go, but I’m glad we’re moving in the direction of sustainable development and good stewardship,” he said.

Bulletin 0028-7/13/05