v History of Asia Since World War II:

Ø Two Phases of Recent East Asian History

§ Phase I=> 1945-1980:

· Some Asian nations become communist states

¨ Little improvement in lives of their people

· Others pursued blend of capitalism & state direction

§ Phase II=> 1980-present:

· 1980s were prosperous for capitalist Asian nations

¨ continued to grow & enjoyed political stability

· 1990s witnessed recession and a halt in $ growth

Ø Phase I highlights:

§ 1980s saw dramatic $ growth of Asian region

· Japan’s economic growth especially impressive

· Japan also developed strong democratic parliament

§ Taiwan & South Korea developed $ growth 10+ yrs later

· Attained stunning $ growth (w/o freedoms of Japan)

¨ Same for Hong Kong & Singapore

§ Inherent values of people of region made $ growth likely:

· Hard work, frugality, family oriented, education drive

¨ If given the opportunity to apply these values freely

§ Not case in China (PRC), North Korea (NK), and Vietnam

§ PRC went through numerous periods of political turmoil

· Contrast btwn Chinese in PRC w/Taiwan & Hong Kong

¨ Especially wrt economic production & growth huge

§ Vietnam stagnated & NK slightly better after Korean War

· Paled in comparison to South Korea’s $$ growth

Ø Phase II highlights:

§ Japan’s per capital product passed Germany, and…=>

· Until 1990s=> even past all the others above

§ Taiwan, SK, Hong Kong, & Singapore also impressive $$

· $ growth linked w/social stability & varied cultural life

· Unfortunately, recession of ‘90s halted all $$ growth

¨ Especially true for hard hit Japan

§ PRC experienced most dramatic change during Phase II

· Communist dictatorship introduced facets of market $$

¨ Strict political control but w/more open market $$

¨ Result: explosive $$ growth & export boom to West

¨ Started in China’s SE coastal areas=> then spread

Ø Repressed entrepreneurial talents surfaced

Ø Growing economy affected society=> change

· Vietnam embraced weaker version of above policies

¨ Push private enterprise & opened markets to invest

· Which communist Asian nation failed to heed change?

v Japan- the recent decades

Ø High risk miscalculation of 1941

§ Japan bets internal LOCs against US industrial capacity

· Believed US had no resolve for war in western Pacific

¨ They were wrong

§ 1945: Despite desperate & virtually hopeless state=>

· Japan braced for US invasion of their homeland

· Even Hiroshima & Nagasaki & USSR war declaration

¨ Military hardliners refused to concede defeat

§ Imperial Conference split 3-3 for/against surrender

· Emperor finally broke deadlock=> for surrender

¨ 15 May 1945: “unendurable must be endured”

§ Apprehensive expectations turned to grateful cooperation

· Japanese realize victors’ aim: reconstruction & peace

· New democratic ideals embraced & militarism rejected

· Occupation viewed as “second opening of Japan”

Ø The Occupation

§ General MacArthur’s Phase I priorities & reforms:

· Japan’s demilitarization & demobilization

· Civilians & soldiers returned to Japan

· Military demobilized & police decentralized

§ Mac’s Phase I priorities & reforms continued:

· Ultra-nationalist groups dissolved

· Home Ministry abolished & political prisoners freed

· 210K leaders of wartime Japan removed from office

· International war crimes courts convened

§ Democratization reforms:

· Shinto disestablished as state religion

· Labor unions encouraged

· Zaibatsu combines dissolved (temporarily)

· Education system changed to “single track”

¨ Students given more time to choose vocation path

· Land reform=> sold expropriated holdings at low cost

¨ Irony: created politically conservative small farmers

Ø Impact of new Constitution- 5 major societal changes:

§ 1. Established Brit style Parliament & US style Judiciary

§ 2. Women given right to vote

§ 3. Life, liberty, & pursuit of happiness + Bill of rights

§ 4. Article 9: “No-war” clause (impact/significance?)

§ 5. New role for Emperor=> symbol of state=>

· Representing the will of the Japanese people

· Emperor Hirohito no longer Shinto god

Ø Phase II=> economic recovery (1947=>):

§ US created climate for democracy to take root/flourish

§ Dropped plans for decentralization of big business

§ Encouraged Japan’s government to curb inflation

§ Encouraged it to crack down on Communism

§ Provide $2B in 1947 dollars to ensure success of above

Ø Impact of Korean War on Phase II (1950-53):

§ American attention drastically shifted toward Korea

§ Japan left to decide government policies themselves

· Cabinet & Diet made key decisions – not Occupation

§ 1952: Japan regained sovereignty & signs security treaty

· Provided for American bases with US to defend Japan

· Used as basis for US-Japan defense policy (1% GDP)

Ø Parliamentary Politics

§ Author’s theory about Japan’s potential recovery paths:

· Model Communist State vs. Parliamentary democracy

§ Japan’s post-war politics=> Three political eras:

· 1^st era (1945-55): continuation of pre-war party politics

¨ Modified to fit new political realities & framework

¨ Comprised 3 major parties=>

Ø Liberals & Democrats (conservative) & Socialist

¨ Which party dominated Japanese politics this era?

¨ Led by Yoshida- Autocratic “One man Yoshida”

Ø Pro-business & Pro-American/anti-communist

Ø (see Yoshida’s view of US Occupation- p.972)

· 2^nd era (1955-93): “the one & half party” system

¨ Combined Liberal & Democrats=> 1 dominate LDP

Ø LDP enjoyed one party rule (of Diet) for 38 years

Ø “Half” party was Liberals (spit into 2 factions)

¨ Several LDP political trends noted during 2^nd era:

Ø 1. (1955-66): LDP “Tyranny of majority” till ‘60s

§ then gradual decline in confrontation approach

Ø 2. LDP received less popular vote over time

§ 1953: 63%=> 1965: 55%=> 1976: 43% vote

§ Reflected decline in #s of conservative farmers

§ Also union workers &white collar vote socialist

§ From 1979=> negative trend for LDP

Ø 3. LDP keep Diet majority (opponents fragment)

· 3^rd era (1993-present): Cold War ended & $ recession

¨ Communism’s end=> Socialists virtually irrelevant

¨ LDP conservatives become main players again

¨ Economic recession becomes primary concern

Ø LDP unable to fix=>drops to 233 out of 480 seats

¨ 2001: LDP selects Koizumi (reformer- pix) as PM

Ø Economic Growth

§ Dramatic post WWII $ growth of Asia=> esp. Japan

· Japan leads way=> $ growth for 1945= that of 1918

· By 1955=> Japan reached pre-WWII levels

· Then Japan’s $ growth rose to double digit (next 20yrs)

§ “Made in Japan” label changed it meaning – how?

· From cheap “Dime Store” goods=>

¨ Quality products in great demand in West

Ø Sony, Toyota, Honda, Toshiba, Cannon, Seiko

§ Factors contributing to Japan’s impressive $ growth:

· Well established banking, marketing, & manufacture

· Global situation favorable:

¨ Oil cheap, raw materials available, & export market

· US sponsored early entry to World Bank, IMF, etc.

· 20% savings rate for Japanese=> $ available to invest

· Also=> US provided for Japan’s defense- result?

¨ Less $ spent on own defense=> more for investment

§ Reform education system=> more engineers (less lawyers)

· Best minds focus on “improvement engineering”

¨ Someone else pays for R&D=> Japan on market

¨ Consistent w/traditional adaptation of new ideas

§ Japan benefits from its high quality cheap labor:

· By 2002: 127M population (vs. 83M in 1950)

· “Company based” unions=> avoid neg. production

¨ Since 1990s=> labor union power has declined

§ “Japan Inc.” & the role of Japan’s gov. in business:

· Tariff protection & Foreign exchange breaks

· Depreciation allowances & Government funded R&D

· Government supported loans & subsidies

· Small defense budgets (1% GDP) & welfare budget low

¨ Result: corporate taxes kept low

· Finance Ministry & Ministry of Japan=>

¨ Encourage private business loans

¨ Gov more supported of business than regulative

§ By 1973: Japan’s economy “mature” at 4% growth/year

· Factors: cost of doing business rose

· Basic change in economy: from smoke stack industry

¨ => to service, pharmaceuticals, chemicals, science

· Japan starts to generate surplus balance of trade

¨ US & Europe complains=> protectionists’ policies

Ø Factors contributing to Japan’s sluggish $ growth of 1990s?

§ Japan’s sluggish economic growth of 1990s- factors:

· Stock market & land bubble=> prices soar past value

· 1991: Japan’s economic bubble bursts

¨ Land prices drop by 30% (Hawaii investments also)

¨ Stocks lost 60% of value at market’s peak

¨ Investors & Banks lost big=> huge losses incurred

¨ Small companies went bankrupt (can’t service loans)

¨ Large companies restructure & cut jobs & R&D $

¨ Unemployment soars (relative) from 1.5%=> 5%

§ 21^st century: key question=> how to get out of recession?

· Financial bureaucrats hesitant to bail out banks- why?

· No national consensus as to what exactly to do

¨ Individuals against raising taxes

¨ Increase savings & hope Japan muddles through

· Parties unwilling to take decisive action

· Result: forces beyond gov control take control of $

§ Plus side: Japan’s favorable balance of trade w/US-$80B

· More efficient Auto assembly plants (Nissan vs. GM)

· Also concentration in high tech research & R&D

· Japan determined to lead in several high tech. areas:

¨ Flat screens, fermentation chemistry, robotics, etc.

§ Note Japan’s relative GDP global standing (table p. 976)

Ø Society & Culture => several major changes take place:

§ Major post-war shift from farms to cities occurs

· 3 generation families go to 1 generation “love match”

· Rich buy city “mansions” while rest live in comp. apts

· Japan’s worker incomes rise=> consumption also rises

§ Status of women rose (vote, legal equality, family inherit.)

· Women enter male dominated universities

· Rising income allow parents=> higher ed. to children

¨ Mothers often obsess over children’s progress

· Women married after 2-3 years in work force, then=>

¨ Stay home to raise children=> then return to work

· Wives become household authority

§ Prime role of education (49% go to college)

· Getting into best university considered to be critical

· Result: prep for & taking entrance exams very big deal

¨ Excess of Japan’s “examination society”

§ Rise of middle class (as 90% of Japanese view themselves)

· Extremely literate society (all types of books/journals)

§ Japan’s prejudges have lessened over time but still persist

· Koreans suffer social &job discrimination in particular

§ Why is the aging population most serious social problem?

§ Japan’s aging population presents very serious dilemma:

· Pension shortfalls with fewer worker vs. retiree ratio

· As Japan’s population ages- fewer workers avail to tax

· Gov left with few difficult options to reform this system:

¨ Raise taxes, cut benefits, raise qualification criteria

¨ (US has similar problem as baby boomers retire)

§ Role of Religious cults (nerve gas attack in Tokyo subway)

§ “Salary men” => death by “karoshi”(?)

§ Japan’s society favorably compares to US:

· Job security better than in US (perhaps inefficient)

· Birth to unwed mothers & infant mortality less

· Murder by handguns (banned in Japan) much less

§ Japan’s culture includes both traditional & modern works

· Tradition & modern experimentation:

¨ Poetry, paintings, pottery, formal tea ceremony

¨ Flower arrangement, No plays & Kabuki

¨ Woodblock prints (see example pp. 978-79)

Ø Japan & the World - at the start of 21^st century=>

§ Japan’s three critical global relationships:

· 1. Trading partner with all nations of world

¨ self described “UN nation”

Ø Provider of aid & member of Int’l $ groups

¨ Strong advocate of free trade

§ 2. East Asian neighbors: historical baggage of WWII

· Sensitivity to issues in Korea, Taiwan, China, Russia

¨ At times insensitive

§ 3. Relationship w/America=>

· Close political ally & key trading partner

· Also linked by mutual security concerns

· Role/impact of Security Treaty (w/amendments)

¨ Remains cornerstone of Japan’s defense policy

· Recent years=> Japan moved twd military cooperation

¨ But always within limits of its Constitution (article 9)

§ Following 9/11: PM Koizumi stated strong support for US

· Opposition to all forms of terrorism

· Diet made modification to Japan’s Constitution

¨ Limited Defense force role outside Japan- in Iraq

Ø Extremely controversial role- esp. with the left

v China after 1949=> The Peoples Republic of China (PRC)

Ø The four Ma’s:

§ Malthus: theory of geocentric population growth vs.

· Arithmetic growth of food to feed expanding population

§