v Collapse of the Soviet Union (1990-1991)

Ø Gorbachev’s view: no longer can prop up Communism

§ First Soviets abandon Communist regimes of East Europe

§ Then same view applied to USSR’s comm. party as well

Ø Renunciation of Communist Political Monopoly

§ 1990: proposed end to communist party monopoly on pwr

· (See document excerpt p. 957)

· following intense debate in Central Committee- adopted

· Discarded Lenin’s elite single party as Rev.’s vanguard

§ Gorbachev’s challenges – 3 major political forces:

· 1. “conservatives”=> maintain CP & Army’s influence

¨ Concerned about $ stagnation & political upheaval

¨ Late 1990 Gorbi installs them to key gov. positions

· 2. “Liberals”=> accelerate $ transition to free market

¨ Also move quicker toward democratic reforms

¨ Led by Boris Yeltsin-‘90 elected president of Russia

Ø Political base to challenge Gorbi following coup

· 3. Rising regional unrest=> now no longer repressed

¨ 1989-90: Baltic states press desire for independence

Ø Discontent also rose in Islamic Republics

§ Riots break out in Azerbaijan & Tajikistan

§ 1990-1991: Gorbi failed to negotiate settlement w/above

Ø The August 1991 Coup & its impact

§ Conservatives attempt last ditch high risk coup attempt=>

· By mbrs bought into Gov during G’s strategic retreat

· Order Tanks to invade Moscow & Gorbi arrested

· Held in vacation Dacha in Crimea under house arrest

§ Boris Yeltsin’s finest hour

· Yeltsin defies coup plotters & climbs aboard tank

· Denounces coup & appealed to world for help=>

¨ To continue USSR’s progress toward democracy

· Within two days coup collapsed & major change occurs

§ End of the Soviet Union

· Gorbi returned to Moscow disheveled & weakened

¨ Humiliated by very officials he appointed to cabinet

· Major mass celebration follows of coup’s failure

¨ Soon apparent that Yeltsin had acquired more power

Ø Gorbachev had lost stature => and also power

· Result of fail coup attempt:

¨ Communist Party (CP) discredited by its complicity

Ø Soon totally collapses

¨ Constitution revised to reflect new political realities

Ø New Soviet Republics acquire more independence

¨ 25 Dec 1991: USSR gone=> CIS replaced it (Map)

Ø The Yeltsin Years

§ 1992: Yeltsin popular domestically (for a while) & w/CIS

§ 1993: Opposition to Yeltsin & $/political reforms arose

· Became particularly evident in Russian Parliament

· Parliament comprised of many old guard communists

¨ Strongly resisted economic & democratic reforms

· Impasse soon develops between President & parliament

§ Sep 1993: Yeltsin suspends Parliament- it deposes him

· Parliament then tries to evoke popular uprising

§ Military remained loyal to Yeltsin who orders it to attack

· 4 Oct 1993= attacks Parliament bldg=>revolt crushed

§ Yeltsin’s decisive action briefly consolidated his power

· West (US) backed Yeltsin (concerned about turmoil)

· Army now key dimension to Yeltsin maintaining power

· Russia’s continuing $ problems continue to stoke unrest

· Ultra-Nationalists win large # of seats in Parliament

§ 1994: Chechnya attempts to break away from Russia

· Bitter conflict results=> Yeltsin makes strategic retreat

· L/L=> central gov very limited over strong resistance

§ 1995 elections: Communist party wins 1/3 of Parliament

· Nostalgic voters rebuff Yeltsin’s unpopular reforms

§ 1966: Slick political campaign help re-elect Yeltsin

· (effectively cover up his heart attack/drinking problem)

· Economy remained stagnate=> more political unrest

· 1998: Russia defaults on loan payments

· Attempted & successful political assassinations occur

§ 1999: Yeltsin (faced w/ill health) & above probs- resigns

· Hand picked successor- Premier Putin- succeeds him

§ Mar 2001: Putin elected president in his own right

· Renews war in Chechnya=> heavy casualties

¨ Enables Putin to consolidate his political power

§ 9/11/2001: Putin extend full support/cooperation to US

· Concerned about own problems w/local Islamist

§ Russia’s political & $ future still appears uncertain

· Putin remains virtually a popular “cult” personality

v Collapse of Yugoslavia (Yugo) & Civil War

Ø Creation & composition (Map 33-3)

§ Yugo created following WWI=> six major ethnic groups

· All w/histories of ethnic rivalries & conflict

· Croats & Slovenes=> Roman Catholic/use Latin ABCs

· Serbs, Montenegrins, & Macedonians=>

¨ Believe in East orthodox church & write in Cyrillic

· Bosnians => European Muslims

§ All reside in historic regions as individual republics

· NTL=> Serbs also live outside Serbia as well

Ø Role of Tito- Yugoslavia’s first communist leader

§ Acted independent from Stalin & pursued own FP

· Silenced ethnic differences through cult of personality

¨ Manipulated through complex power sharing

§ After Tito’s death=> $ recession undermined central gov.

· Yugoslavia then slid into civil war

§ Ethnic differences re-surfaced in late 1980s

· Slobodan Molosevik (Serbia) vs. Tudjman (Croatia)

· Serbs contend not given adequate authority/influence

¨ Decried discrimination of Serbs outside Serbia

¨ Ethnic tension & violence soon escalated

§ As once communist dominated Soviet Bloc unraveled=>

· Slovenia & Croatia declare independence

· Soon recognized by Germany & EC soon after

Ø Result: violence escalates steadily in Balkans

§ Serbs determined to maintain Serb c2 unitary Yugoslavia

§ Croatia determined to secure their own independence

· Croatian Serbs demand protection from discrimination

· This demand give Serb pretext to move against Croatia

§ By June 1991=> full scale war: Serbia vs. Croatia

· Core dispute=> ethnic hatred => violent conflict

§ 1992: Both fight over Bosnia-Herzegovina’s division

· Muslim Bosnians caught in the middle (hated by both)

· Serbs soon pursue deliberate policy of ethnic cleansing

¨ Any historic parallels?

§ Serbs bombard Sarajevo & gets international attention

· UN finally acts with limited sanctions

· Then Serb arty kill scores at city marketplace

¨ World opinion hardens against Serbs

§ 1995: NATO’s role in conflict:

· Operational & tactical air strikes against Serbs

· What was the Dayton Peace Accords & its results?

· Dayton Peace Accords briefly bring peace settlement

¨ Reorganized war zone into an independent Bosnia

Ø Enforced by NATO peacekeepers

§ Late 1990s: Serb aggression against Albania (Kosovo)

· Serb military drive Albanians out of Kosovo

¨ Heavy civilian causalities & war atrocities occur

¨ Fleeing refugees to mountains- many die along way

§ 1999: World opinion appalled by Serb action (media)

· Bomb Serb army & Belgrade (strategic bombing)

¨ Result: Serbs get message & withdraw

§ 2000: Milosevik gov overthrown by Serbs

· Milosevik bought before world war crimes court

· Others still remain at large

v Problems in the Wake of Communism’s Collapse

Ø New problems & new opportunities

§ Opportunities: Democratic government & market $$$

· Also restoration of civil liberties denied for so long

· Potential opportunity for improved standard of living

§ Problems: achievement of above require great patients

· In limited supply for people so long repressed & denied

Ø Problems of political & economic change

§ Unemployment widespread in former USSR & E. Europe

· Plants & factories obsolete=>inefficiency & pollution

§ Same nations also recognize their impoverished state

· 100ks migrate to West for jobs & better standard of life

· Result: some western states (Germany) resent & oppose

§ West Europe hesitant to provide economic aid to East

· Resentful public weary of growing cost of liberation

· Esp. true in Germany due to high unification costs

· Great Briton experiencing economic downturn

¨ Lack economic resources to provide aid

Ø Major questions still to be addressed:

§ How should former communist economies relate to EU?

§ What are political challenges of communism’s collapse?

Ø Political Challenges of communist states’ collapse

§ Ethnic violence of great potential in Russia (Chechnya)

§ Control of nuclear weapons of particular concern to West

§ Czechs & Slovaks divided into separate nations (1993)

§ Collapse of Communist regimes has surfaced ethnic goals

· Result: domestic political turmoil & unrest=> conflict

§ Key question: can fledging democracies survive turmoil?

Ø Meanwhile NATO continues to expand (size & mission)

§ Exact purpose & mission to be defined

· (old boundaries redefined=> throughout Europe)

· 8 new countries added (Balkans & East Europeans)

§ Eventually overcome resistance to act (as in Yugoslavia)

· Now assumed role of Europe’s internal peacekeeper

v The West Since 1945 in Global Perspective

Ø Post World War II paradoxes

§ Europe birthplace of Western Civ=> influence in decline

· US & USSR rose in power & influence to replace it

· Both exerted more power than pre-WWII Europe

¨ Both in deadly conflict with each other

Ø Cold War- conflicting ideological & geo-strategic interests

§ US & USSR ideological, $, & military rivalry’s impact=>

· Dominated global political struggles for almost ½ cent.

§ Divided Europe: NATO vs. Warsaw Pact (Map)

· Outside nations forced to align with one or the other

¨ Some 3^rd world states would successfully resist

Ø Play superpowers off each other

Ø Impact of Communism’s collapse & Cold War’s end

§ Opened new period of Western history=>

· US emerged for Cold War as only superpower

§ Western Europe now on brink of new $ & political unity

· Still its society & governments proceed with caution

§ Meanwhile=> Russia & East Europe have own problems

· Experience economic recession=> social turmoil=>

¨ Political uncertainty

Ø Emergence of a “New World Order”?

§ Grave dangers posed by regional conflict

§ US & Western Europe’s role still TBD

§ Another major concern threatening civilization=>

· Islamist terrorism & how to deal with it effectively

· How to stop future 9/11 threats & potential WMD use

¨ How to hunt down terrorists & eliminate them

§ And for US=> how to get out of Iraq “with honor”