Major Post-Cold War Issues

v   New Power Arrangement Replacing CW Competition?

Ø    Dollar Block vs. German Mark Block vs. Yen Block?

§       Role of NAFTA agreement & European Free Trade area

·       British vs. German disagreement over currency rules

§       Recent fall of dollar (Euro ($1.33 = 1 Euro as of  11/04)

Ø    Clash of Civilizations (Samuel P. Huntington’s thesis)?

§       Division along religious, ethnic, & cultural lines

·       Role of Islamic Fundamentalism

§       Counter arguments: sub-divisions within groups

·       Iraqi Sunni vs. Iranian Shi’a

·       Serbian Orthodox vs. Croatian Roman Catholics

Ø    Age of Fragmentation (IAW Text)

§       Role of the computer & Internet

·       Rapid dissemination of info => Impact on power?

§       New Communication of post-industrial era (1970s=>)

·       Impact on Soviet Union –why?

·       Role of mega-corporations & $1.5T global movement

Ø    Post Cold War’s fragmentation and its impact

§       Money, ethnic rivalry, religious hatreds, territorial dispute

·       Winners (North) vs. losers (South)

·       Impact of “unrestrained capitalism”

¨     Social justice vs. unrestrained competition

§       Globalization & its impact

·       Free flow of capital, info, & trade

·       Corporate leverage seeking cheap labor

¨     Economic dislocation (that “sucking sound”)

·       Role of NGOs (impact on Nike & Reebok)

v   Can Nuclear Weapons be controlled?

Ø    Spread of Nuclear Weapons to other states

§       Israel, India, Pakistan, North Korea, Iran (?)

·       Potential crises close to surface=> catastrophe

§       Attempted nuclear material smuggling

·       Especially out of former USSR nuclear plants

§       Chemical and Biological weapons stockpiles

·       Libya, Egypt, Iran, China, & Iraq (?)

Ø    US power to enforce NPT limited

§       Israel, India, and Pakistan outside NPT

§       Iran insists its nuclear use intentions are for energy

·       Any disconnect with that assertion?

§       US moral authority questioned by Text (Lafeber)

·       (US is world’s largest conventional arms supplier)

Ø    $21 Billion sales in 1991

v   UN role in limiting rising disorder & nuclear proliferation?

Ø    UN successful peacekeeping operations since 1980s

§       El Salvador, Angola, Cambodia, Iran-Iraq War

§       Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan

§       Exception: Africa (Rwanda), and Bosnia failures

Ø    UN main problem: member mistrust of UN HQ staff

§       US- GOP critics (Led by Jesse Helms during 1990s)=>

·       Inefficient bureaucracy with anti-US agenda

·       Withheld $Billion+ of member dues in UN support

§       Also condemned by Soviet critics as “supranational”

§        Clinton admin initially optimistic=> then disappointed

·       Fell short of expectations for US overseas policies

v   Ability to deal w/post-Cold War’s greatest danger (IAW Text)?

Ø    Post Cold War nuclear disasters:

§        Chernobyl (1986) + 3 major radioactive leaks (1993)

§       Major oil spills (EXON Valdez) + others off Europe

§       Persian Gulf War- Kuwaiti oil well fires by Iraqis (1991)

§       Starvation of rising populations in Africa (Somalia/Sudan)

·       Drought and disappearance of arable land for food

Ø    Post Cold War Russia=> environmental threat to neighbors

§       Half population of affected regions=> 33% has cancer

·       Southern Urals=> 80% villagers suffer chronic illness

¨     Genetic code of Tatars altered=> malformed at birth

Ø    North American environmental problems:

§       Industrial & Agro toxins flow into Great Lakes

·       Increased rates of male sterility link cited

·       Physical disabilities in children & female breast cancer

§       Waste gases such as CO2 into atmosphere by US

·       Ineffective compliance w/1992  Rio Agreement

Ø    Population growth=> global linkage & environment impact

§       While natural resources decline, world populations grow:

·       1960 (3 billion)=> 1990 (6 billion)=> 2050 (10 billion)

§       Growing division between haves of North & poor of South

·       “Global village” => 24% are hungry (European expert)

§       20th cent. wars (especially in 3rd World) fought over what?

·       What will 21st century wars are fought over? (Text)

·       World Bank funding limitations for global (?) projects

Ø    Increasing demand by developing world for oil & gas:

§       Fossil fuels needed for industrialization (China especially)

·       Impact on global supply available=> rising oil prices

¨     Recent decline in dollar (one $ = .75 Euro -11/04)

Ø    Potential implications on US economy

Ø    Oil producers’ potential shift to Euro?

·       Impact on global environment=> “Greenhouse”gases

¨     Exact cause debated but  air temperatures are rising

¨     Another possible cause is deforestation & its impact

v   American people’s preparation for post-Cold War world?

Ø    Changing nature of crises & the strength of US society

§       Heeding the USSR’s experience=> rotting from inside out

§       Contrasted w/Japan & Germany rise to $ power (‘50-’90s)

·       Educated workforce, intelligent bureaucracy

·       Long term economic planning & high savings rate

¨      Capital for economic investment(in US during ‘90s)

·       Contrasted w/rising US consumer & government debt

§       Inherent American problems rooted in US History:

·       How to adjust to postindustrial technology=> deal with:

¨     Creation of instant communication

¨     Fragmentation of political & economic power

¨     Giant multinational corporations & cartels

·       Past historical American experience with major change:

¨     Industrial revolution (1880s-1890s)=> results:

Ø    Economic dislocation, crisis, and job loss

Ø    Racial tensions & populist revolts

Ø    new political parties & imperialist FP

 

Ø    American political system & its intelligent implementation

§       Balancing efficiency and fairness:

·       Successful foreign policy (FP) requires:

¨     Consistency, secrecy, & concern for larger interests

·        Tocqueville’s observation of 1830s wrt diplomacy?

¨     Inconsistent public opinion (also rapidly changes)

¨     Public that tells what it knows (and doesn’t know)

¨     Focus on individual (& factional) $$$ interests

§       Creating consensus within democratic system:

·       Major challenge for effective democratic support of  FP

·       Role of Truman Doctrine during 1947-1989

¨     Nation united to stop spread & threat of what?

¨     Ike through Reagan used for popular support of FP

§       Bush & Clinton’s challenge after 1990 wrt FP?

·       Role of Truman Doctrine during post-CW era?

·       The “Tocqueville problem”=> creating consensus

·       Rise of job losses (1970-2000) & Greece, NY solution?

§       American people’s knowledge of the world & FP issues:

·       Foreign aid as a percentage of the Federal Budget?

¨     Public opinion vs. percentage of Medicare costs?

·       Three Stooges vs. three of 9 Supreme Court Justices?

·       US schoolchildren ranking in history, math, & science?

·        US politicians reflect above lack of FP understanding:

¨     GOP contract with America=> primary focus?

¨     Ignoring growing linkage between domestic & FP

Ø     NATO expansion vs. 66% cut in NATO funding

§       Recent measured reversal in above trend from 2000:

·       US troops under UN commander for peacekeeping

¨     Still very controversial (especially with military)

·       US Corporations recent requirements for job applicants:

¨      More knowledge and experience in global affairs

¨     Why?  As result: growing gap grows between who?

·       Post 11 September 2001 change in public’s FP attitude

¨     More aware & involved=> Terror & war in Iraq

Ø    Dealing with global unpredictability

§       Greater reliance on US military superiority

§       Initial willingness of Bush II Admin to “go it alone”

§       Irony of post Cold War era?

·        Less threat of Thermonuclear War & mass destruction

·       Increasing political instability & greater terror threat

¨     Historic seedbeds of war: Central & Eastern Europe

¨     Seedbeds of Terror: Middle East & North Africa

§       Gorbachev’s warning at Fulton and its significance?

·       Revisionist argument with some qualification

¨     Soviet post-WWII situation & Stalin’s error?

¨     How did West react and what resulted?

·       Potential for falling victim to the “1914 model”?

·       Growing gap between wealthy North vs. poor South

·       Growing problem of “Exaggerated nationalism”?

§       Do you agree or not with his call for stronger UN?

§       How should we deal w/rising disorder & fragmentation?