v Bush, Gorbachev, Yeltsin, & the USSR’s demise (1989-91):

Ø The New World Order:

§ Bush initially hesitant twd Gorbachev’s offer on 3^rd World

· Cautious in response to his offer of cooperation

· Wary of USSR sincerity to resolve 3^rd World conflict

§ NTL- Soviets still withdraw from Afghanistan (Feb’89):

· Bush (CIA) continues to provide arms to Mujahedeen

· (Najabullah survives until Taliband take over in 1992)

§ Impact of Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan on China?

¨ Sino-Soviet relations improve:

¨ Aids rapprochement & border dispute addressed

§ Motivation for China to improve Sino-Soviet relations?

· Status of US-China relations by mid-1989? Why?

· Geo-strategic considerations also are factored in:

¨ So as Cold War appears to be ending =>

Ø Rationale for role of Triangular Diplomacy?

§ Gorbachev also leads effort to end Cambodian conflict:

· Pressed Vietnam to withdraw by Sept 1989

· Soviets withdraw their Navy from Cam Ranh Bay

· US ends support of non-communist guerillas:

¨ Transfer support to coalition of all parties- July 1990

§ Following Cambodian Accord, normalization talks begin:

· Between which parties? What were Preconditions?

¨ Full accounting of all MIAs;

Ø Cooperation to realize UN Cambodian Peace plan

· What was the final outcome of normalization talks?

¨ Who bought it to a conclusion? (How did it play?)

§ Progress also made in ending conflicts in Africa:

· Namibia, Angola, Ethiopia. & Mozambique

· US-Soviet cooperation instrumental in resolutions

§ US especially interested w/USSR 3^rd world actions where?

· Gorbachev informed what LATAM leader that:

¨ USSR can no longer support exporting what where?

· Practical reasons why Soviets can no longer support?

¨ Can’t afford continued subsidizing of trade (sugar)

¨ Urged cooperation with US to resolve $$$ problems

¨ Gorbachev also redeployed Army Brigade to USSR;

§ Gorbachev also worked to end civil war in Nicaragua:

· Halted aid to Sandinista Government

· Endorsed “Contradora Plan” (of LATAM presidents):

¨ Conduct new free elections in Feb’90

· Coupled w/end of US aid to Contras => civil war ends

§ Both also work to end El Salvador’s civil war – result?

Ø Kuwait War (Aug 1990 – Feb 1991):

§ Why was this war important to US-USSR relations?

· Test of detent => US-Sov. collaboration & cooperation

¨ In the 3^rd World => (will it survive serious crisis?)

§ Both have conflicting geo-strategic interests in the region

· Bush: invasion viewed as intolerable threat to what?

¨ (potential impact on US $$$ interest?)

· Also opportunity (read test?) of US-Soviet cooperation:

¨ Collaboration in building New World Order

Ø (based on principles of UN charter)

· Gorbachev- attitude & motive? (often in conflict):

¨ 1^st concern: dire need for US $$$ assistance

Ø (US facilitated Saudi credit line of $4B to USSR)

versus:

¨ 2^nd concern: balancing collaboration w/US against=>

Ø expected bad reaction of Soviet hardliners (who?)

Ø (Why potential adverse reaction over Iraq?)

§ So what did Gorbachev do & why did he do it?

· #1 overrides #2 => ($$$ aid trumps loyalty toward Iraq)

· Bush also makes it easier – how? (UN mantel)

¨ US pledge not to take unilateral military action

§ Soviet actions in direct support of US & UN proposals?

§ Soviets join US in joint statement condemning invasion

· Also join support for UN embargo & UN resolution:

¨ Use of armed force if necessary to eject Iraq

§ Caveat to Soviet support?

· NO Soviet military troops to enforce UN resolution

· This position is just fine with Bush Admin – why?

§ NTL US still concerned (determined) to keep USSR in line

· Wants to avoid chance of Soviet sabotage of UN effort

· Bush meets w/Gorbachev (Sept’90) at Helsinki:

· Aim: ensure continued USSR support for UN resolution

· Result? Joint US-Soviet statement:

¨ Support all UN resolutions

¨ Recognized possibility of further action needed

¨ Following resolution of this crisis:

Ø Both agree to cooperate to resolve ME conflicts

§ (especially what ongoing conflict?)

· Significance of above?

¨ Reverses what policy wrt USSR involvement in ME?

§ But as 200K US military troops deploy to Saudi bases =>

· What happens & what is Gorbachev’s response?

¨ Soviet hardliner & Soviet military’s role?

¨ Primakov peace mission & its results?

§ When Saddam rejects Primakov’s diplomatic mission:

· Soviets support UN Security Council Resolution

¨ Agree with measure to use military force;

§ Desert Shield (17Jan-23Feb)=> Desert Strom (-3Mar’91):

· Results?

· Soviet hardliner reaction=> Gorbachev’s concerns =>

· Bush’s response

· Should Bush have removed Saddam from power in ‘91?

¨ Factors for & against?

Ø Balancing power & Iran in the Middle East

Ø Impact on the Arab coalition

Ø $$$ & Blood to go it alone to Baghdad

Ø Impact on Gorbachev’s status & US relations

Ø Revisiting the problem ten years later;

Ø Gorbachev’s Decline:

§ Constant problem:

· waivers between reformers & hardliners

¨ tries to hold political center => mixed results

§ In contrast Yeltsin aggressive free marketer=>

· Pushes 500 day free market plan

· Supported initially by Gorbachev but later withdrew:

¨ Why did Gorbachev withdraw his support for plan?

§ Gorbachev withdrew support for Yeltsin’s plan because:

· Slowly realized it obviated need for central planning

¨ If central $ planning irrelevant – so was what else?

§ When Gorbachev withdrew support for 500-day plan –

· What happened?

¨ Forced to cut ties with reformers

¨ Forced to rely more & more on who?

Ø Then coup rumors emanate from right wing

§ Gorbachev then appoints more hardliners to key positions:

· (KGB & old guard communists fill top spots)

· Result: Shevardnadzi resigns:

¨ Warns of Soviet style dictatorship in the making

· Gorbachev approves several hard line measures

¨ Demonstrations against measures & for Yeltsin

¨ Gorbachev then veers to left once again

§ Mar’91: Gorbachev initiates National Referendum:

· Aim: gain mandate for USSR’s reform as Fed Union

¨ Comprised of equal sovereign republics

· Once again he is outmaneuvered by Yeltsin – how?

¨ Establishment of Russian presidency attached

Ø Wins approval by 85% of the vote

¨ Elections set for June’91=> results & significance?

§ Yeltsin elected president of new Russian Republic:

· Now wields legitimized position of power in fact

¨ Able to press for aggressive reforms:

Ø Democracy, capitalism, & greater sovereignty

§ Gorbachev recognized Yeltsin’s growing power w/alarm:

· Concerned Yeltsin’s radical reforms fuel RW reaction

· Gorbachev’s choice? (embraces radical reforms)

§ What are these “radical reforms” (by Soviet standards)?

· Increased democracy

· Free market economy

· Greater autonomy for the republics

· Denationalization of Soviet industry (3/4 by July’91)

§ 9 republics of new Soviet Union approve broad $$ reform

· Their plan to be presented to G-7 conference in July’91

¨ Significance?

Ø Gorbachev & the West:

§ What did Gorbachev hope to accomplish at G-7 meeting?

· From West? From his domestic continents?

· What did he actually end up getting from both?

· What was his reaction?

· What was the problem?

§ Gorbachev’s desired goal at G-7 meeting:

· From West: economic aid (lots of it)

· From USSR: enhanced domestic approval

· Result: went away virtually empty handed:

¨ Token associate membership fell way short

· Reaction: feels humiliated & blames Bush

· Problem: Bush having 2^nd thoughts:

¨ Concerned US aid wasted on corrupt bureaucracy

¨ US itself in recession

¨ US domestic criticism of US aid to Soviets on rise:

¨ Grand Bargain ignored (Harvard study)

Ø Proposed $$$+ aid in exchange for radical reform

· By nature Bush very cautious & conservative:

¨ Especially wrt $$$ assistance to USSR

¨ Still extends waiver to Jackson-Vanik resolution

¨ Announced $1.5B credit for grain, etc purchases

¨ Baker outlines limited plan for $ assistance- Jun’91

§ Some progress was made during discussions at G-7:

· START accord signed at Moscow Summit – July’91

¨ Warheads reduced to 6000 cap

¨ Launchers capped at 1600 (details text p. 285)

· What other progress was made at the Moscow Summit?

§ Moscow Summit (July 1991):

· Bush stated US would ratify bi-lateral trade agreement

· Also promised to “consider” granting MFN status

¨ (finally granted in 1992 under Clinton + some $ aid

· Both agreed to cooperate to end regional conflicts:

¨ Joint host of international conference on Middle East

Ø Aim: end Arab-Israeli conflict (how’d they do?)

¨ Both urged negotiated settlement to Yogo civil war;

§ Bush also tried to convince Ukrainians to work w/Gorbi

· During visit to Kiev he pushed preserving the USSR

¨ Failed to mention self-determination – (bad move)

· Ukrainians remained unimpressed:

· Bush’s speech soon labeled –the Chicken Kiev speech

Ø August Coup:

§ Initial legal attempts to grab power:

· So called “constitutional coup”

· PM Pavlov request Parliament for emergency powers

¨ Enable cabinet to enact measures w/o Gorbachev

¨ Soundly rejected by Soviet Parliament (262 to 24)

§ Bush passed on indications & warnings of coup in making

· Informed Gorbachev of right wing planning for coup

· What is Gorbachev’s response to Bush’s warning?

§ Gorbachev ignores warning

§ What was the specific issue that sparked the coup?

· Gorbachev took measures to reduce hardliner power:

· Announced plan to create democratic communist party!

· Declared socialism & market $$$ indivisible (heresy)

· Comm Party Plenum approved draft reform program

¨ Also known as: the Union Treaty

¨ Planned to submit to full party later– mistake – why?

Ø Coup plotters given brief window of opportunity

§ 19 August (while Gorbachev on vacation in Crimea):

· Plotters seize opportunity & act:

· VP Yanayev + hard-line KGB & military leaders:

¨ Announced Gorbachev removed due to poor health

Ø (under house arrest)

¨ Committee declared 6 month state of emergency:

Ø (no new Union Treaty would be signed)

§ But the attempted coup failed – why?

· Who was primarily responsible for coup’s failure?

¨ Heroic action taken (His finest hour):

Ø Denounces coup to world from top of tank

Ø Declares coup illegal & barricades White House

· Main reason from a practical standpoint why it failed?

§ Key reason coup failed: KGB troops refuse to obey orders

· Army also refuse to storm Parliament (some protect it)

¨ 21 Aug: Soviet troops withdraw from Moscow city

Ø Coup leaders arrested

Ø Peoples Deputies announced emergency

committee disbanded

§ Impact of failed coup?

· Any change in the overall situation in USSR?

· Foundation for central rule by Communists Party (CP)?

· Gorbachev’s piecemeal attempt at reform?

· Yeltsin’s power in contrast to Gorbachev’s?

· Credibility & stature of Communists party w/people?

§ Yeltsin consolidates his power:

· 21 Aug: Yeltsin accused CP as coup’s inspiration

· suspended CP activities in Russia & seized its property

· also forced Gorbachev to accept his slate of ministers

· other Republics follow similar course

§ Impact: Gorbachev scrambles to distance himself from CP

· (too late) => CP in rapid decline => USSR is next

Ø What were the key events leading to end of the Soviet Union?

Ø Demise of the Soviet Union (Aug-Dec 1991):

§ Pre-condition: 1^st => unsuccessful August Coup:

· Unraveling of the CP

· Decline of Gorbachev’s power & influence

§ Then a rapid unraveling of the Soviet Union itself:

· 6 Sep: Gorbachev recognizes independence of who?

· 12 Sep: Baltic states & 12 Soviet Republics agree to=>

¨ Shared Defense framework & joint control of what?

· 1 Oct: Soviet Republics to form economic union =>

¨ forms potential basis for 10 state political union;

· Ukraine is key to viability of $$$ union treaty:

¨ Decides to conduct referendum on independence:

Ø Results of referendum?

· 1 Dec: Ukraine votes for independence =>

¨ Yeltsin concludes what re. preserving Soviet Union?

· 8 Dec: Yeltsin joins Ukraine & Belarus to form CIS

· 18 Dec: Ukraine, Belarus, Kazakhstan transfer Nukes:

¨ To whose control do they transfer these weapons?

· 21 Dec: 8 other Republics join CIS

· 25 Dec: Gorbachev resigns as President of USSR

· 26 Dec: Supreme Soviet dissolves itself as of 31 Dec’91

Ø Bush’s actions at end of Soviet Union:

§ Bush response to August coup? (per Yeltsin’s request)

§ 19 Aug: Bush labels coup: “disturbing development”

· also: “extra-constitutional” & later “unconstitutional”

¨ Supports Yeltsin’s call for Gorbachev’s restoration