v   Bush, Gorbachev, & Germany’s Reunification (1989-91):

Ø    Overview – toward New World Order?

§       1989 was a year of rapid & dramatic change:

·       Bush Admin always seemed behind these events;

·       New modified policies rapidly became OBE;

§       Communists East Europe & USSR control unraveled;

·       Soon after the Berlin Wall fell (symbol of what?);

·       Germany’s re-unification soon followed;

§       Then as the US & USSR resolved many major differences:

·       Abandoned competition & confrontation;

·       Replaced by a burgeoning spirit of cooperation;

·       The Soviet Union itself began to rapidly decline;

§       As these dramatic historical events rapidly unfolded:

·       How did Bush deal with them?

¨     (effect of Bush’s personality)

§       Bush searched urgently for a credible & realistic policy:

·       How to deal with a rapidly changing world:

·       A New World Order => (National Security study):

¨     NSC, DOS, & DOD conduct broad reassessment;

¨     In-depth review of East-West relations & impact:

¨     World now shaped by growing multi-polarity;

 

§       Bush Advisors divided over how to deal w/New World:

·       Kissinger (outside) urged Bush take initiative:

¨     (vice merely react to Gorbachev’s actions);

·       Cheney predicted Gorbachev’s reforms would fail;

·       Eagleburger asserted: not our problem if they do;

§       Outside Administration => contrasting views stated:

·       Reagan criticized Bush caution & temerity to act;

·       Kennan pronounced Cold War clear passed:

¨     USSR no longer military opponent of US;

·       NATO partners pressed for greater flexibility;

§       Reversal of roles? (“Toad in the road to peace”?)

·       Many came to see USSR as actively pursing peace:

¨     While US appeared to be dragging it feet;

Ø    1989: Year of Revolutions:

§       Background: seeds of revolution:

§       6 July: Gorbachev calls for “Common European Home”:

·       Formally rejects Brezhnev Doctrine:

¨      (justification for what intervention in 1968?);

·       In its place Gorbachev stressed:

¨     Arms Control;

¨     Human rights;

¨     Rule of law;

¨     Environmental protection;

§       Bush made trip to Hungary, Poland, West Germany:

·       Challenged Gorbachev to back his words w/action:

·       Called for Soviet liberation of Eastern Europe:

¨     In private – Bush preferred slower evolution:

¨     Why? (impact on US-USSR tensions & hardliners);

¨     In fact: Bush support for Poland’s Jaruzelski:

Ø    Effect on Polish people & their attitude?

§       Jaruzelski’s initiatives toward liberalization:

·       Invited Solidarity to form coalition government!

·       Motive: Western $$$ assistance desperately needed;

·       June 4 election result?   Impact & result?

§       Soviet reaction to & significance of Poland’s new gov?

§       Soviet Reaction to Poland’s new non-communist gov:

·       Official statement: Sinatra Doctrine?

·       Why did Gorbachev allow Poland to “go its own way”?

¨     Without reform soon => what potential was likely?

Ø    Soviet Army’s role in restoring order? =>

Ø    Impact on Western $$$ aid desperately sought?

§       (SECSTATE Baker’s warning);

¨     Avoid future entanglement -Afghanistan syndrome?

§       Gorbachev also urges other East Euro regimes to reform:

·       Instituted own perestroika – reform measures;

·       Gorbachev’s motive?

¨     Satellite regime attain popular legitimacy =>

¨     Precludes need for future Soviet intervention;

§       Any problem w/Gorbachev’s approach & its assumption?

·       Miscalculates what wrt to Satellite population attitude?

·       Result:=>reform=>liberalization=>unrest=>collapse;

§       Hungary: (illustrates above):

·       11 Jan: Regime begins reform & political liberalization:

¨     Allows freedom of assembly & independent parties;

·       8 April: Janos Kadar ejected (ruled since ’56 revolt);

·       2 May: opens border to Western Europe (1st  Satellite);

·       Mar’90: free elections=> non comm. Gov => result?

§       Unexpected result of new non-communist government:

·       East Germans vote with their feet to west & freedom=>

¨     (via liberalized Hungary w/open border to Austria);

§       East Germany:

·       Impact of Gorbachev’s 7 October 1989 visit?

·       Gorbachev’s warning to Hoenecker?

·       18 Oct: impact of Leipzig demonstrations:

¨     Hoenecker’s status;

¨     Krenz liberalizes travel to West Germany:

Ø    Motive: end exodus via Hungary;

Ø    Actual result?

·       9 Nov: What does East German government now do?

¨     Regional & international impact?

·       Gorbachev’s reaction:

¨     Concerned events escalating out of control (true?);

¨     Calls for meeting of Four Powers;

¨     Bush response?  (German “self-determination);

·       Dec 1-3: Krenz resigns as E. German regime collapsed:

¨     Moderate communist takes over:

Ø     promises free elections by early 1990;

·       April’90: non-communist gov coalition takes over:

¨     Sets 2 July for what historic occasion of Cold War?

§       Czechoslovakia – the “velvet” revolution:

·       Poland & East Germany set example for Czechs:

·       17 Nov: 1000 students grow to 200K strong by 19 Nov:

¨     Demand free elections & resignation of hard liners;

·       24 Nov: Communist party secretary M. Jakes resigns;

·       28 Nov: general strike of millions force election reform:

¨     free organization of non-communist parties;

·       10 Dec: majority cabinet of non-communists take over;

·       29 Dec: Vaclav Havel replaces Husak as president;

§       Bulgaria:

·       9 Nov ’89: Politburo removed Zhirkov (ruled since’61):

¨     Replaced by moderate Mladenov (Foreign Minister);

·       Communist able to hang on to power for one more year;

¨     Democracy followed;

§       Romania: (not so velvet revolution nor Merry Christmas):

·       Dec ’89: State security kill 100s of protestors:

¨     Provoke even larger demonstrations;

·       21 Dec: staged “rally” for Ceaucescu turns ugly:

¨     1000s jeer in mass demonstration against him;

¨     military unit support demonstrators;

·       realizing lost support of military means lost power:

¨     Ceaucescu attempts to flee country- what happens?

§       What was crucial to success of all of  these revolutions?

·       What were these overthrown regimes unable to call on?

Ø    Malta Summit (2-3 Dec 1989):

§       Characterized as “symbolic end” to Cold War – why?

·       Both leaders resolve to make progress on:

¨     START, CFE, & Chemical weapons;

·       Bush promised to go beyond containment:

¨     Proposed normalized trade relations:

Ø    Examined granting USSR what?

§       MFN, credits, GATT observer status;

¨     Objective:

Ø    Help USSR transition into world economy;

·       Gorbachev’s reaction & response?

¨     Promised Soviet integration into world economy;

¨     End conflict in 3rd world;

¨     Support free elections in Nicaragua (Chamorra-OK);

¨     Halt Soviet aid to El Salvador rebels;

·       Obstacles remaining?

¨     Dictation to Castro?

¨     Avoiding to implications of 2004 Olympics venue?

·       What actual progress was made at the summit?

·       Concrete progress made:

¨     Trust & rapport between Bush & Gorbachev rose;

¨     Gorbachev concluded Bush won’t embarrass him:

Ø    How did Bush embarrass Gorbachev in past?

Ø    Soviet Union Declines:

§       CIA assessment of April 1990:

·       State of Soviet economy – near crisis;

·       Contributing factors beyond Gorbachev’s control?

¨     Rigid centralized planning structure;

¨     Inefficient agricultural system;

¨     No computer technology;

¨     Natural & manmade disasters;

¨     Limited resources to deal with above;

·       Contributing factors within Gorbachev’s control:

¨     Application of “half measures” to address above;

¨     No aggressive or painful measures taken – i.e.=>

Ø    End government price controls;

Ø    Establish free market system only;

Ø    Terminate centralized planning structure;

¨     Result: consumer shortages & productivity down;

Ø    While discontent, strikes, & inflation rise;

§       Impact of above on Gorbachev’s domestic support?

 

§       Impact of above on Gorbachev’s domestic support:

§       Popular support for Gorbachev rapidly declines;

·       Congress of Peoples Deputies:

¨     Elected by direct popular vote (Gorbachev reform);

¨     Harshly criticize Gorbachev’s actions;

·       Hardliners criticize loss of East Europe:

¨     Also decline of communists global influence;

¨     Praise from West & pope => in wrong direction;

·       Reformers criticize lack of progress (1/2 measures);

·       Yeltsin’s power growing while Gorbachev declines;

·       Nationalists Independence movements growing trend:

¨     Balkan states: Lithuania, Latvia, & Estonia =>

¨     Demand freedom & end to Communist domination;

·       Also growing nostalgia for the “good ‘ole days”

¨     Older pensioners & those left out of work;

§       As a result of this perceived decline of Gorbachev’s power, the Bush administration had to ask itself what key question about its relationship with Gorbachev?

 

 

Ø    Bush & Gorbachev in decline:

§       Baker reports poor odds for Gorbachev political survival;

§       Key question remains:

·       How far to go w/Gorbachev to sustain his leadership?

§       Answer to question further complicated by Baltic states?

·       Growing trend, unrest & pressure for independence:

¨     Why? (Stalin’s role in Sept 1939)?

§       Administration’s initial reaction:    Ambivalent    – why?

¨     USSR’s  political disintegration => instability =>

Ø    International instability not in US interest;

¨     Above also consistent with American ideals- why?

Ø    (how & why would the USSR disintegrate?)

¨     A fine line is walked: American ideals vs. what?

§       Developing crisis in Lithuania:

·       Bush tells Gorbachev US will avoid inflaming crisis:

¨     Impact if Soviets resort to force & trade embargo?

Ø    Negative political impact on relations;

Ø    Potential impact on future US-USSR trade;

¨     Senate resolution withholding trade benefits:

Ø    Gorbachev lifts trade embargo in response;

Ø    US lifts controls on high tech exports to 3rd states;

§       What does US continue to withhold from USSR & why?

§       US continues to withhold MFN from Soviet:

·       Reason: Human Rights (Jewish emigration);

·       Gorbachev considers this as a double standard - why?

Ø    German Reunification:

§       Following fall of Berlin Wall (Nov’89) =>

·       East & West Germany moved toward reunification;

§       Gorbachev’s attitude toward reunification? – why?

·       Historical geo-strategic concerns?

·       Hardliner position & leverage?

§       Gorbachev also sensitive to Western opinion =>

·       Soviet Strategy? => indirect approach:

¨     Called for revival of four powers institutions;

¨     Integration of NATO & Warsaw Pact =>

Ø    Become part of new all European security system;

¨     Shevardnadzi called for European referendum:

Ø    Aim & purpose?

·       But all these efforts soon became irrelevant – why?

¨     18 March 1990 elections in East Germany;

Ø    what happened – who was elected?

§       As a result of above realities, what did Soviets do?

·        Adjusted strategic aim? (fallback?)

§       Soviet strategy shift:

·       Block NATO membership of reunited Germany;

·       US response?

§       How did Bush attempt to make above easier to swallow?

·       “2 + 4” talks (?):

¨     resolve international issues of German reunification;

§       Washington Summit (May 1990):

·       Bush gives Gorbachev 9 assurances (Text p. 274):

§       Soviet counter-proposal at 2+4 Talks (22 June):

·       Transition period (3-5 years):

¨     4 powers establish German armed forces levels;

¨     revamp military structure => no offensive ops;

¨     ban on Nazi ideology;

¨     preserve memorial against Fascism;

·       NATO to be transformed into political organization;

·       Reduce 4 powers forces in Germany to token or zero;

·       Remove all troops from Berlin within 6 months:

¨     Counted from reunification date;

¨     Soviets still to have 389K troops in East Germany;

§       US response to Soviet conditions?

·       Baker’s rationale?

§       London Declaration (NATO Summit – July 1990):

·       West takes additional measures to allay USSR fears:

¨     NATO members declare end to Cold War;

¨     Invite Warsaw Pact to establish diplomatic liaison;

¨     Request reciprocal pledges of non-aggression/force;

¨     Nuclear weapons declared “strategy of last resort”;

¨     Reduced Nuclear arsenal (SNF) in Europe;

·       Also Bush asserts US to w/d all Nuclear arty in Europe:

¨     If Soviet will reciprocate;

¨     Also US will not make replacement for Lance;

§       Gorbachev’s response (July 14, 1990)?

·       Chancellor Kohl’s role?

¨     Massive loans & economic aid;

¨     Cap on military forces to 370K & No ABC weapons;

¨     $8B for maintenance & removal of Soviet troops;

·       Gorbachev promised to remove all forces with 4 years:

¨     Then all rights & responsibilities of 4 powers end;

·       Significance of Kohl’s & Gorbachev’s agreement?

§       Historic events of 1990 unfold:

·       12 Sept: 4 powers sign Treaty of Final Settlement;

·       1 Oct: surrender power &responsibility of Berlin &Ger;

·       3 Oct: Germany reunited => 2 Dec: free elections;

Ø    Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE) (begin 9 Mar’89):

§       Meanwhile => NATO & Warsaw Pact negotiate:

·       Discuss force reduction in Europe at Vienna;

§       Focus of talks:

·       Limit Tanks, arty, APCs:

¨     East desires to include A/C & Helos;

·       Troop ceiling of 195K;

§       CFE Treaty:

·       Signed 19 Nov’90 at CSCE Paris meeting: