Ø    Star Wars:

§       Official title?  SDI & BMD means?

·       Ground or space based weaps to attack Soviet ICBMs:

·       Strategic Aim:

¨     Attack ballistic missiles prior to hitting US targets;

·       Technical difficulty?

§       Impact on accepted Nuclear Strategy up to then?

·       Major change – why? What strategy does it replace?

§       Secondary goal of SDI program?

·       Potential impact on Soviet economy? Why?

·       Critics argument against effectiveness of SDI?

¨     $$$ of Soviet counter-measures vs. $$$ of SDI?

Ø    Decoys & huge numbers of real warheads;

§       Soviet reaction to Reagan’s change to “defense”?

·       Impact on US-Soviet Nuclear balance?

·       Potential for first strike advantage => then SDI;

§       Other critical concerns:

·       Trigger dangerous & $$$ arms race  in Space (new);

·       Also violated what treaties? (LTB’63, OST’67,ABM’72)

·       Likely Soviet response to US pursuit of SDI? (ICBM ^)

§       Administrations response? R&D $$$? Test results so far?

§       Administrations response: ignores Soviet reaction;

·       R&D $$$ (1988-1989): $17B (with escalating costs);

·       Test results so far: mixed (with highly controlled tests);

Ø    Reagan’s New Approach (Able Archer):

§       Reagan displays more flexibility twd Soviets – when/why?

·       latter part of 1st term;

·       Reasons for increased flexibility:

¨     Nuclear arms reduction more & more popular;

¨     Polls: public opinion changed in favor of control;

¨     2nd term? => adjust position accordingly;

§       Additional reasons for Reagan’s change in attitude:

·       Reagan’s military build-up takes hold =>

¨     Now ready to negotiate from position of strength;

·       Impact of Able Archer on Soviet KGB?

¨     Reagan’s reaction to Soviet counter-measures?

¨     Realization of potential for global Nuke destruction;

·       Reagan’s new SECSTATE & his influence on Reagan:

¨     More realistic attitude twd strategic Nuclear balance;

¨     In contrast to Administration’s hardliners – who (?)

Ø    Reagan reluctant to challenge hardliner advisors;

Ø    Schultz butts heads often – even offers to resign;

¨     Who helps soften Reagan’s position twd USSR? NR

§       Schultz finally succeeds & Reagan becomes more flexible:

·       Reagan makes New Dialogue speech- upbeat in 3 areas:

¨     Reduce/eliminate military force in regional conflicts;

¨     Reduce Nuclear Weapons;

¨     Improve US-Soviet working relations;

·       Soviet reaction to Reagan’s speech w/positive tone?

¨     US election politics;

¨     Events stirring Soviet Union’s future leadership?

Ø    (Andropov  => Chernenko);

§       Affect of presidential election & campaign politics:

·       Major impact on Reagan’s turn-around? – why?

·       Fritz Mondale critical of Admin’s arms control record:

¨     Reagan unable to conclude arms control agreement;

¨     Mondale promises unilateral freeze on Nuke deploy.

Ø    No action to be taken until US-Soviet talks begin;

·       Reagan adopts more upbeat attitude on arms reduction;

¨     UN speech:  proposes new negotiation  framework:

Ø    Establish NST => Nuclear & Space Arms Talks:

§       Umbrella concept to reduce total stalemate;

§       Combines: INF, START, & ASAT negotiations;

§       Soviet response to Reagan’s NST proposal?  Main focus?

§       Soviets agree to talk following Reagan’s re-election:

·       USSR focus: SDI (prevent nuclear arms race in space);

·       Talks begin Mar 1985 => progress?  Main obstacle?

¨     US aim:  reduce strategic/tactical Nuclear missiles:

Ø    But US refuses to discuss BMD constraints;

¨     Soviets refuse to discuss any missile reductions =>

Ø    without limits on SDI => Result: Deadlock;

Ø    Gorbachev & New Thinking:

§       Gorbachev’s rise to power – result of:

·       Critical problems of Soviet system – what problems?

¨     Productivity, waste, & goods & materials shortages;

·       Impact or problems: constrained Soviet $$$ growth;

§       Soviet weakened $$$ could not compete in global $$$:

·       Technological advances of West (computers, etc.)

·       Basis for West’s rapid $$$ & industrial expansion;

§       All above exacerbated by Soviet social malaise:

·       Chronic alcoholism  & absenteeism at work;

·       Poor health care (infants) & social service system;

·       Stifled $$$ market: no product incentive & low morale;

·       Few consumer goods => black market & corruption:

¨     Long lines, poor service, & popular dissatisfaction;

§       If USSR can’t compete in global $$$ how does it get $$$?

§       Because Soviets unable to compete in world marked =>

·       USSR left to sell arms, oil, & natural gas for currency;

§       Soviet defense budget as % GDP=>twice that of US DOD;

·       Impact on rest of economy? (guns vs. butter);

§       Also other $$$ obligations to support Soviet client states:

·       3rd World “liberated” regimes depend on $$$ support;

¨     (from 1%  of GDP in 1971 => 3% in 1980)

·       impact: growing significant $$$ drain =>

¨      further undermines already weak Soviet economy;

§       Fall out of declining Soviet economy:

·       Appeal of communism?

·       Pressure to come up with a solution => new ideas;

§       New Thinking:

·       Gorbachev had already figured this out long before:

·       Concluded: Soviet must reduce support to 3rd World;

¨     New obligations resisted;

¨     Cut backs made: Nicaragua, Cambodia, Angola, etc.

Ø    Where else of particular concern to US?

·       Also concluded Soviets must withdraw from where?

·       Gorbachev further concludes that Soviets must pursue arms reductions more aggressively – why? Motive?

§       Soviets must pursue arms reductions - motives:

·       Improve Soviet image with the West;

·       Reduce tensions with the West – especially US;

·       End arms race => reduce expenditures;

·       Attract Western economic assistance & technology;

§       New Thinking also forces reassessment of key tenets:

·       Marxist-Leninist positions => long held premise:

¨     Communists vs. capitalists inevitable clash;

¨     Ultimate victory of communism;

·       Gorbachev concluded what was the real problem?

¨     What was directly to blame for $$$ & social mess?

§       Gorbachev embarks on a complete Soviet make-over:

·       Cultivates more friendly communist image w/West:

¨     Stresses human rights & freedom (vice clash);

¨     Made co-existence permanent East-West condition;

·       Blames Stalin for Cold War:

¨     Non-aggression pact w/Hitler => WWII;

¨     Conquest of Baltic States => (future impact?);

·       Soviet make-over offensive launched:

¨     July 1985: Shevardnadze speech: past Sov mistakes;

Ø    Lists (Brezhnev et. al.-p.253)

§       Gorbachev’s strategy: declare end to Cold War- Reaction?

§       Reagan very slow at first to accept new Soviet face lift:

·       Initially suspicious & wary;

·       Nancy Reagan’s key role?

·       By mid-1985 => Reagan also initiated charm offensive;

Ø    Arms Reduction – “False START”:

§       By mid-1985 Reagan ready to talk with Gorbachev:

§       Nov’85: both meet at Geneva => rapport & improved air;

§       Jan’86: Gorbachev proposed abolition of Nukes by 2000:

·       1st stage: Theater Nukes to zero => NTL stalemate still;

§       Oct’86: Reykyavik: from prelim meet to full scale Summit:

·       Gorbachev makes concrete detailed proposals:

¨     Reduce warheads to 6K ballistic missiles & ALCM;

¨     Reduce long-range missiles & bombers to 1600;

¨     Then elimination of all Nukes in 10 years;

·       Reagan’s response?    Key obstacle to deal?

·       Result:  Un-ratified START status? 

¨     Deployment of ALCM on B-52s?

Ø    INF Treaty:

§       Gorbachev accepts “zero option” – significance?

·       What major categories of missiles eliminated?

·       Impact on US deployed Pershing IIs & GLCMs?

·       What major concessions were made by who?

Ø    INF Treaty:

§       Gorbachev accepts “zero option:”

·       Historic arms control measure:

¨     Eliminated all land-based missiles (1000-5500 KM);

¨     SRINF (land based short ranges – 500-1000KM):

Ø    US dismantles 429 Pershing IIs & its Tomahawks;

Ø    Soviet dismantle total of 1752 short range missiles;

·       Total count eliminated: US – 1000; Soviets – 3000+;

§       Gorbachev gets credit for his historic initiative:

·       Pursued settlement with persistence;

·       Accepted Reagan’s demand for verification;

·       Accommodated almost all of Reagan’s demands;

¨     Also Kohl’s demands for short range SCUDs;

·       Eliminated all Europe based US-USSR INF missiles;

Ø    Conventional Force Conflict in Europe- CDE:

§       Gorbachev’s strategic objective?

·       Reduce tensions & Conventional Forces in Europe;

§       Background (details in text pp 256-7):

·       Historic change & evolution of numerous venues:

·       Little progress made from 1978 – August 1986:

¨     Then major breakthrough made – how/what?

§       August 1986 breakthrough on reducing risk of war:

·       Soviets agree to on-site inspections in USSR:

¨     Confidence building measures (CBMs);

·       Stockholm Accord signed covering all Europe:

¨     Reinforced Helsinki Final Act:

Ø    i.e. military forces & activities in Europe;

¨     Exercise notification for maneuvers X2 to 42 days:

Ø    Over 75K troops- exercise requires 2 year notice;

¨     3 on-site inspections per year w/o right of refusal:

Ø    established precedence for INF talks;

Ø    CFE Reductions:

§       Gorbachev also pursued Conventional Force reductions:

·       Focused on Europe – (way ahead of West);

§       Aug’86: proposed establishment of new forum:

·       Replaced stalled MBFR venue:

·       Address all conventional forces from Atlantic => Urals;

§       Fall’87: announced unilateral reductions by 10% in 2 yrs;

·       Cut 500K troops or 10% of entire USSR Armed Forces

·       Also would remove 10K tanks from Europe;

·       Shevardnadze later announced removal of short range Nukes from central Europe, along w/6 Tank divisions;

§       East Europe clients also announced cuts=> implication?

§       Implication of cuts: Brezhnev Doctrine is dead;

·       More & more believed Gorbachev sincere:

¨     Actions indicated attempt to end Cold War;

·       Reagan continued to keep pressure up – example?

Ø    Soviet Retreat from the Third World:

§       Gorbachev also accelerated Soviet w/d from 3rd World:

·       Occurred during Reagan’s last year in office;

§       Gorbachev’s conciliatory actions included:

·       Afghanistan settlement (April ’88);

·       Vietnam’s agreement to w/d 1/2 troops from Cambodia:

¨     Soviet pressure played key role;

·       Brokered deal to end conflict in Angola & Namibia:

¨     Removed all foreign troops (Cuban & South Africa);

§       Also achieve Sino-Soviet rapprochement prior to depart:

·       Gorbachev reduced Soviet troops in Mongolia;

·       Negotiated settlement on Amur-Assuri border dispute;

·       May’89: visited China (1st time USSR ldr since “K”);

§       Restored diplomatic relations with Israel & Egypt;

Ø    Reagan’s final year in office:

§       How had US-USSR relations changed since Reagan’s 1st term in office?

 

Ø    Reagan’s final year in office:

§       Dramatic change: from Evil Empire => partner in peace;

·       Genuine US-Soviet cooperation ensued;

·       Reagan at Moscow Summit: “They’ve changed.”

¨     Issues addressed at Moscow:

Ø    Human rights – (Jewish immigration);

Ø    Freedom of religion;

Ø    Free trade;

Ø    Conflicts in Angola, ME, Cambodia & Vietnam;

¨     Also pre-notification of intended missile test;

¨     Verification protocol:

Ø     (’74 Peaceful Nuclear Explosion Treaty < 150K);

·       Sept’88: Nuclear Risk Reduction Centers:

¨      To be established at Moscow & Washington DC;

¨     Purpose: avoid miscalculation & misunderstandings;

·       Still unresolved Nuclear missile reduction treaty?

§       Reagan would continue to press for Soviet actions:

·       Improved human rights (though less strident);

§       Reagan speech at Moscow University announced:

·       Exchange program of 1000 student per year;

§       But all this would be trumped by Gorbachev at UN– how?

§       Gorbachev’s United Nations Speech (Dec 1988):

·       Captures World imagination & presses US to act;

·       Speech addressed several key issues:

¨     Remove ideology from International Relations;

¨     Support for human rights & liberty proclaimed;

¨     Rejection of class war & use of force;

¨     Soviet unilateral reduction of 10%  of Armed Forces;

§       Jan’89: Shultz & Shevardnadze sign CSCE at Vienna;

·       Shultz also praised positive changes made by Soviet since Helsinki Final Act;:

·        Shultz also criticized some East European regimes –

¨     human rights violations => (old ways die hard):

§       More dramatic changes would soon occur throughout Europe;

 

 

Ø    Did Reagan win the Cold War?

§       What was Reagan’s role in ending the Cold War?

·       Some say Reagan won it – rational for this view?

¨     Steadfast ideology?

¨     Military buildup?

¨     Full Court Press & economic impact on Soviets?

¨     SDI & sincere desire to eliminate all Nukes?

·       Soviet system itself was rotten from within?

¨     All of above actions made it fall apart sooner?

§       Gorbachev’s role in ending the Cold War?

·       Recognized vulnerability of Soviet economy?

·       Took actions to reduce tensions & $$$ arms race?

·       Revised long held ideological views re. East-West?

¨     From inevitable conflict to cooperation?

§       Secretary of State Shultz’s role?

·       Influence on Reagan over that of hardliners?

§       Role of Congress & Public Opinion?

·       Tired of Nuclear sword hanging over World?

·       Lack of Congress & Public support for covert Actions?

¨     3rd World, Iran-Contra, Nicaragua, etc.?

§         Reagan’s choice to act - when & how he did act?