v   Ronald Reagan’s Cold War (1981-1989):

Ø    Overview - Cold War Victor?

§       Foreign Policy background & experience?

·       Actor, president of screen actors guild, governor;

§       Interest, knowledge, & effectiveness in Foreign Policy?

·       Carter & Reagan – contrasts in styles:

¨     Hands on & meticulous vs. detached & uninformed;

§       View of Communism, USSR,  & US relations with it:

·       Limited to experience & point paper briefs;

·       Suspicions of communist intent;

§       View of Détente, SALT II, & the “one way street”:

·       US economic aid & technology;

·       Prop to an inefficient & oppressive system;

·       Dangerous military threat;

§       Perception: US-USSR nuclear weapons imbalance:

·       Closing the “window of vulnerability”;

·       Increase US Nukes & decrease Soviets=> Result?

§       Transformation later during 2nd term:

·       Evil Empire to business partner in peace;

·       Reversing course (more in detail next week);

§       Key question: Why did Reagan change toward USSR?

§       Two conflicting arguments:

·       1. Reagan’s active engagement w/Soviets in Arms Race:

¨     Soviets couldn’t keep up economically=> bankrupt;

·       2. Gorbachev’s concessions & unilateral disarmament;

Ø     Reagan’s Grand Strategy:

§       Regan’s reliance on hard line advisors – 1st term:

·       Committee on Present Danger: composition =>

¨     Vehement anti-communists/anti-Soviets;

¨     Strongly opposed SALT II (& détente)=>

Ø    Soviet 1st strike capability & ready to use it;

Ø    Scenario envisioned: Nuclear blackmail;

¨     US must acquire capability to engage Soviets =>

Ø    At all levels of conflict => i.e. strategic and ???

§       And on an extended time frame;

Ø    Result?  Impact on DOD funding?

§       From $171B up to $376B (over 2X plus up);

§       Revived B-1 bomber;

§       Deployed  MX &  Trident;

§       BMD & ASAT development;

§       Conventional forces revitalized:

·       (Military’s reaction to election results);

¨     (Navy especially happy – why?)

Ø    Unadvertised additional key strategic objective?

§       Unadvertised major strategic objective:

·       US-Soviet arms race that will bust Soviet $$$;

·       US strategy & impact on Soviets attempt to keep up:

¨     Disrupt Soviet economy;

¨     Reagan’s Full Court Press strategy:

Ø    Deny critical resources to Soviets;

Ø    Deny hard currency from oil & natural gas;

Ø    Deny access to western high technology:

§       Pentagon’s Office of Technology Assessment;

·       Impact?

¨     Military Buildup + $$$ stress => contributed to =>

Ø    Soviet economic collapse of early 1990s;

¨     Any impact on US economy?  (what & why?)

Ø    Reagan Doctrine:

§       Doctrine’s premise of Soviet’s role in the 3rd World?

·       (Vs. local political, economic, environmental factors);

§       Doctrine’s strategic aim:  reverse Soviet 3rd World gains;

·       Strategy: support anti-communist Regimes =>

¨     By all means necessary- (Overt or Covert);

·       In the process, overcome what Foreign Policy  affliction suffered by America during this period?

·       Examples of US convert anti-communist support:

¨      Poland (Solidarity);

¨     Angola (UNITA);

¨     Afghanistan ($2B in CIA support to Mujahedeen);

¨     Central America – (perceived threat from who?)

Ø    Grenada & prime example of Reagan Doctrine;

¨     Primary LATAM world concern to Reagan?

Ø    Nicaragua: Aim – overthrow Ortega government:

§        Ortega &  Sandinistas growing threat:

§       Growing support to FNLM  in El Salvador;

Ø     US covert support to Contras:

§       Covert Ops (Bluefield);

§       Congressional opposition & Boland I & II;

§        Role of Casey & Oliver North:

·       lying to Congress;

·       NSC goes underground:

¨     Operation Rescue;

¨     Arms for hostages (ME connection);

§       The scheme unravels (60 minutes investigates):

·       Iran-Contra Affair & the cover-up;

·       President & VP plead: “out of the loop”;

·       McFarland, North, Poindexter take the fall;

Ø    Human Rights:

§       Jeane Kirkpatrick’s role:

·       Intellectual support for Reagan Doctrine – how?

·       Conservative realists (balance of power);

·       Distinction: authoritarian vs. totalitarian govs;

·       Impact?

¨     US aid to  pro-American anti-communist regimes?

¨     South Africa, Guatemala, Haiti, Chili, PI, Pakistan;

¨     Military advisors to El Salvador;

·       1983 change: Reagan’s call for free elections:

¨     impact? Status of LATAM military dictatorships?

Ø    Reagan Doctrine: International Terrorism & Middle East:

§       Major thrust of Reagan foreign policy re. Int. Terrorism?

·       Soviet role – regardless of indigenous causes of tensions:

¨     i.e. Poverty, population growth, regional conflict;

§       Libya singled out as Sov. Client supporting Int. terrorism:

·       March 1986: Gulf of Sidra exercise:

¨     Navy CV air: SA-5 radar sites & 3 PBs;

¨     SEAL clandestine ops;

·       Libyan response: Berlin nightclub terror bombing;

·       US response: Air strike on Col el-Qaddafi’s residence;

·       Libyan counter-move to above? (back in the box?)

§       Middle East Conflict:

·       Reagan Admin initially ignores root cause of conflict:

¨     (which is?) – who did they blame for conflict?

·       Early Admin efforts failed to resolve conflict – why?

¨     Arab refuses to cooperate militarily with who?

¨     Why? => Refusal of Israel to negotiate with who?

·       “Humanitarian” intervention in Lebanon (late 1982):

¨     Real motivation: prop up Gemayal government;

Ø    US sends in USMC (compound) & SF (town);

¨     Druze Militia seen by US as clients of who?

Ø    US conclusion: remove Druze =>problem solved;

§       New Jersey fires on Druze militia positions;

Ø    Conclusion of Druze?  => US taking sides:

Ø     Response? Truck bomb USMC compound;

Ø    Congress & Reagan’s response?

·       PLO issue remains to this day unresolved – even worse

·       Besides Israel’s survival- what other key interest does US have in Middle East?

·       What specific region in Middle East has had major strategic importance since the Truman?   why?

Ø    Persian Gulf:

§       Two key events of region during late 1979 & early 1980s?

·       Soviet invasion of Afghanistan & Iran-Iraq War;

§       Common US & Soviet interest in region?

·       End of Iran-Iraq War &” tilt” by both toward who?

§       Reagan administration response?

·       Cooperation vs. confrontation with Soviets?

·       Admin strategy during Iran-Iraq war:

·       tries to play one side off the other;

·       US Strategic Aim: stalemate;

§       Tilt toward Iraq:

·       US Strategic Aim?  Iraq – Soviet relationship?

·       Iraq’s response to US overtures?

¨     Sticking with a loyal ally;

¨     Playing both superpowers to Iraq’s benefit

§       What triggered direct US involvement in the Persian Gulf?

·       Kuwait’s request & US response to it;

§       US military operations:

·       Increased presence &convoy escort of re-flagged ships;

·       SEAL-AH-6 ops from 2 barges => Iranian minelayer;

§       Tragic fall-out: Vincennes downs Iranian Airliner;

Ø    Reagan Doctrine & East Asia:

§       Reagan’s initial policy of confrontation with China:

·       Increased support & arms sales to Taiwan;

·       American Troop build-up in Korea;

·       Remilitarization of Japan:

¨     Urged to take responsibility for own air/sea defense;

¨     Especially sensitive issue for Asians – why?

§       US reverses policy & initiates active cooperation w/China:

·       What motivates this reversal?

¨     Potential thaw in Sino-Soviet relations detected;

¨     Strategic cooperation w/China sought against who?

§       Sino-American Rapprochement:

·       US concludes more to gain w/US-China cooperation;

·       US seeks China help in supporting Mujahedeen;

·       China’s motivation?  – what does China want from US?

·       Aug’82: both reach accord on what contentious issue?

¨     (US to continue selling arms, but gradually reduce);

§       According to SECSTATE Shultz, what major obstacle remain potential problem for improved US-China relations?

 

 

Ø    Reagan Doctrine & Europe:

§       NSDD-32:

·       US seeks to “neutralize” USSR Control East Europe;

·       Strategy (one option) to accomplish neutralization?

¨     Encourage liberalization of E. European  satellites;

¨     Example: Covert $$$ support to Poland’s Solidarity;

§        “Crusade for Freedom”?

·       Keep the pressure on the Soviets & its satellites;

·       Promote democratic ideals & actions around the world;

·       Build democratic infrastructures(?)

§       Soviet reaction?

·       Pravda warns if a “catastrophe” – why/Soviet concern?

§       Reagan’s response?

·       Continues to press for expansion of freedom in E. Euro:

¨     Rejects permanent acceptance of E. European people’s subjugation;

·       But Schultz also stresses a caveat about type of change:

¨     What is the type of change the US supports?

§       What previous administration had a similar policy toward Soviet satellites of Eastern Europe?

·       What was it called?

§       Western Europe’s Response to Crusade for Freedom?

·       Unsupportive of economic pressures & trade sanctions;

¨     (Polish government’s martial law excepted);

·       West Europeans continue trade with Soviets:

¨     Opposed to US confrontation approach;

¨     Desire to maintain good relations with USSR – why?

¨     Effect of maintaining Détente & Ostpolitik on West?

§       West Europe also opposed Reagan Doctrine where else?

·       France/Spain refused US flyover to bomb who in ‘86?

·       In contrast to US anti-Soviet strategy of $$$ sanctions:

¨     West Europe employs $$$ incentives instead;

¨     Objective: modify Soviet conduct in 3rd World=>

Ø    Through positive inducements;

§       Result: Europe’s détente & Sov-West Euro $ ties trump= >

Reagan administration’s goal to isolate Soviet Union;

·       Example: Natural gas Pipeline project from Siberia:

¨     US blocks sale of US pipeline technology to USSR;

¨     Later ordered US & Euro firms to break contract;

·       Western Europe’s Reaction? Effect on relations?

¨     What midterm election move upset allies especially?

¨     Reagan administration’s action 5 months later?

Ø    Nuclear Weapons Control:

§       Both INF & START talks going nowhere during 1st term;

§       Despite Admin’s natural resistance to Arms Control=>

·       Reagan reconsiders & becomes more flexible – why?

¨     Growing Public(protest) & Congressional pressure;

Ø    Growing anti-Nuke movement;

¨     NATO allies exert pressure to engage in Arms talks;

·       1981: US offers Zero Option (?)  (described p. 245);

¨      At issue: mobile Soviet SS-20s & US Pershing IIs & GLCMs + NATO missiles;

¨     Soviet response?

¨     Also various counter proposals (back & forth);

·       NATO presses Reagan to abandon Zero Option:

¨     30 Mar’83: US offers “interim agreement” instead:

Ø    Equal #s of US & USSR warheads worldwide;

¨     Soviet Response?

Ø    Brits & French Nukes must also be included;

Ø    Soviet counteroffer also rejected;

§       Soviet response to West German Bundestag approval of

US cruise missile deployment to NATO?

§       INF & START talks status throughout Reagan 1st term?

§       INF & START* talks status throughout Reagan 1st term?

·       By Nov 1983, both talks had failed;

·       *(Admin’s START offer was designed to be rejected);

Ø     KAL 007 Shoot-down:

§       31 Aug 1983: (day in the life of a Pentagon ILO);

§       Soviets down Korean A/L - strayed off course into USSR:

·       All 269 on board perish;

·       Flew near Soviet missile base on Kamchatka Peninsula;

§       Soviet may have confuse A/L with previous US spy plane:

·       Flown in vicinity of where Korean 007 had strayed;

§       Reagan’s reaction?

·       Act of barbarism;

§       Impact on US Congressional attitudes & action?

·       Effect on attempts to undercut military build-up?

§       Effective exploitation by Admin of KAL 007 incident?

·       NSDD-102: reverse Soviet peacemaker image;

§       Soviet reaction to US attacks on its conduct?

·       “serious threat to peace”;

·       impact on US-Soviet relations?

§        Transcript of Soviet ground control to pilot exchange;

Ø    Star Wars:

§       Official title?  SDI & BMD means?

·       Ground or space based weaps to attack Soviet ICBMs:

·       Strategic Aim:

¨     Attack ballistic missiles prior to hitting US targets;

·       Technical difficulty?

§       Impact on accepted Nuclear Strategy up to then?

·       Major change – why? What strategy does it replace?

§       Secondary goal of SDI program?

·       Potential impact on Soviet economy? Why?

·       Critics argument against effectiveness of SDI?

¨     $$$ of Soviet counter-measures vs, $$$ of SDI?

Ø    Decoys & hugh numbers of real warheads;

§       Soviet reaction to Reagan’s change to “defense”?

·       Impact on US-Soviet Nuclear balance?

·       Potential for first strike advantage => then SDI;

§       Other critical concerns:

· &nbs