v   Carter & the Decline of Détente:

Ř    Idealism vs. Geo-political Interests:

§       Idealistic values in conflict with Realpolitik policies;

·       Carter’s lack of foreign policy experience:

¨     USNA, Nuclear Engineer – SSN, farmer, Governor;

·       Tendency to overreact & become mired in details;

·       Constrained by own moral compass & idealism:

·       Who was Carter’s model for his presidency?

§       Carter’s future foreign policy advisors:

·       Role of Trilateral Commission:

¨     Redirect US policy from Communist World:

Ř    More emphasis on Japan & West Europe:

¨     Commission members & future FP team:

Ř    Zbigniew Brzezinski;

Ř    Cyrus Vance;

Ř    Harold Brown;

Ř    Jimmy Carter;

·       Carter attempted to chose among conflicting advice:

¨     Hamilton Jordan: “Carter was the decider”;

¨     Carter’s inexperience hampered his ability to chose:

Ř    Result: indecision, confusion, & vacillation;

Ř    What were the conflicting views of Carter’s advisors?

Ř    Conflicting views – Vance vs. Zbig:

§       Vance: Diplomacy:

·       Focused on mutual USSR-US interest:

¨     Arms Control, environment, nuclear prolif.

·       Practical “de-linked” Foreign Policy approach (?)

·       Watch words: patience & persistence (Kennan);

§       Zbig:  emphasis & his approach to Foreign Policy?

·       Soviet’s goal: world domination => expansion;

·       US must compete with Soviets for global influence:

¨     Where did Zbig think focus of competition was?

·       Link issues of mutual interest to USSR actions where?

¨     i.e. SALT (just like who in Nixon’s administration?);

§       Carter: what was Carter’s view on Foreign Policy?

·       Woodrow Wilson idealist;

·       Desired legacy – peacemaker (recent Nobel prize)

·       Focus of Carter’s policies - human rights (absolute);

·       Sought new International Order based on:

¨     Community of Interest – (instead of what?)

·       Like Vance, not interested in competing w/Soviets –

¨     But enlist USSR support to solve global problem;

§       Which view would ultimately dominate Carter’s outlook on Foreign Policy?

Ř    Salt II – Stalemate:

§       Carter’s initial position on basis of SALT II?

·       Vladivostok Accord  IAW  Brezhnev desires;

§       After election, what complication arose forcing change?

·       Sen. Jackson’s opposition:

¨     Wants deeper USSR ICBM & IRBM cuts;

¨     Rejects limits on US cruise missiles vs. Backfires;

§       Carter must back peddle on position stated to Brezhnev:

·       Why? what does he need Jackson’s support for?

§       Carter’s compromise offer to Brezhnev rejected:

·       (B-1s reduced from 8 to 5; delay new ICBM a year);

§       Carter tries 2 Track Plan:

·       Track 1: comprehensive plan w/deep cut in Vlad limits;

·       Track 2: deferred plan-

¨     Vlad accord w/o reference to Backfire or Cruise Ms.

·       Soviet response to 2 Track Plan?

§       Brezhnev’s warning to Carter?

·       Open the window for Soviet demands for new cuts - i.e.

¨     US bases in Europe, NATO SS, med-range bombers;

·       Also wants US cruise missiles counted (not Backfire);

§       Was any progress made wrt US-Soviet arms control?

§       Limited US-Soviet arms control progress made:

·       Various working groups established to study issue;

·       No comprehensive US_USSR plan agreed to:

¨     Impression of Carter’s FP team projected to public?

§       Vance-Gromyko meeting at Geneva – 18 May 77:

·       New Framework achieved?

·       3 Tiered treaty w/combo of Vlad Accord & Comp. Plan:

¨     Ceilings on launchers & MIRV established by Vlad.

¨     3 year protocol w/limits on specific systems (cruise);

¨     Joint statement of principles for future negotiations;

·       But 2 years of hard negotiations remained– problem?

Ř    Human Rights:

§       Carter’s promotion of Human Rights on global basis;

·       Key Admin goal;

§       Carter’s assurance to Sakharov;

§       How did Carter back up Admin’s commitment?

·        $$$, RFE, Radio Liberty, Voice of American;

·       Timing & impact on US-USSR SALT negotiations?

·       Impact on détente?  Efficacy toward Carter’s  goals?

§       Soviet reactions?  

§       How did Carter’s insistence on Human Rights affect

    US-Soviet cooperation on other issues?

Ř    African Crisis:

§       Ethiopia vs. Somalia (aggressor);

·       Which superpower backed who?

§       Zbig vs. Vance & Brown:  conflicting council:

·       Diplomatic approach  vs. CVA support;;

·       Carter accepts whose advice?

·       Whose advice was correct?   (Short term vs. long term):

¨     Zbig’s  prediction on precedence for future crises;

§       Even so, seeds of distrust sown – why?

·       Carter attitude about Soviet’s cooperation to end CW;

·       Assessment to confront future Soviet actions in Africa;

·       Policy shift toward Soviet expansion into Africa?

Ř    Latin America:

§       Initial Carter policy toward LATAM dictatorships?

·       Role of Human Rights & its inconsistent application:

·       Argentina, Brazil, Chile;

§       Panama Canal Treaty:

·       Congressional  reaction & GOP future leverage;

·       Squandered political capital? Impact on SALT II?

§       US– Cuba Relations: Carter’s attempt to improve:

·       Why was it short lived?   Angola & Zbig’s role?

Ř    US & Vietnam:

§       Carter’s attempt to normalize relations;

·       Unilateral actions;

·       Woodcock Commission’s report & it findings?

§       Normalization talks begin May 1977:

·       Vietnam shoots itself in the foot – how?

¨     (Nixon’s secret promise - $3.25B);

§       Political fallout:

·       House action (266 to 131);

§       Vietnam reconsiders by 1978:

¨    drops reparations demand;

Ř    too late  & OBE – why?

¨    Vietnam’s incursion into Cambodia;

¨    Potential superpower confrontation:

¨     China & USSR support opposite sides – who?

¨     Zbig convinces Carter to support which side?

Ř    Sino-US Entente:

§       Deng Xiaoping’s rise to power following Mao;

·       Attitude toward improved US-China relations? Why?

§       Potential impact on US-Soviet relations:

·       How do Vance & Zbig disagree on the “China card”?

§       Vance is concerned it will harm US-Soviet relations;

·       Zbig hopes it will & result in improved US leverage;

§       Zbig wins argument & US agrees to Deng’s demands:

·       Reaffirmation of Shanghai Communiqué;

·       PRC recognized as sole government of China;

·       US to terminate diplomatic relations with Taiwan;

¨     End Mutual Defense Treaty;

§       China agrees not to contradict US wrt peaceful settlement;

§       US to continue selling arms to Taiwan;

·        maintain culture & trade relations;

§       Formal simultaneous announcements made 15 Jan’79:

·       Soviet reaction & actions?

¨     SALT II;

¨     Vietnam Friendship treaty – pressure on China;

§       Vietnam invades Cambodia => worsens Vn-Sino relations:

·       Impact on outlook for US-Vietnam rapprochement?

Ř    South Korea & Human Rights:

§       Carter’s attitude & campaign rhetoric;

§       Impact of Carter’s announced intent to withdraw 37K:

·       Conservative political & military reaction (Singlaub);

§       Carter’s reassessment: Realism over Idealism;

Ř    Middle East:

§       Initial position for resolving Arab-Israeli conflict?

·       Role of Palestinian Homeland;

·       Vance-Gromyko Joint Statement for negotiations:

¨     Comprehensive Settlement;

§       Problem: Begin & Likkud Government attitude:

·       Palestinian Homeland & PLO recognition;

·       Subtle sabotage;

§       Israeli – Egyptian Peace Settlement:

·       Role of Sadat & a separate peace:

¨     Carter’s switch to new plan;

·       Impact on Arab & Soviet attitudes toward US:

¨     Undermining comprehensive settlement

§       Result: return to Cold War containment policy:

·       Old Kissinger strategy of regional pro-west regimes;

·       Moderate Arabs as regional policemen => US $$$ aid;

¨     Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Jordan;

·       Sadat promises to protect Persian Gulf oil;

·       Soviets excluded & détente declines;

§       Impact of above actions on SALT II negotiations?

 

Ř    SALT II & Vienna Summit:

§       Difficult negotiations until breakthrough in Mar 1979;

§       Carter & Brezhnev sign treaty on 18 Jun 1979:

·       Placed both qualitative & quantitative limits on Nukes;

·       (SALT II Treaty details on page 219 in Text);

§       Why was it so hard to sell SALT II to liberals & conservatives?

§        What was their conflicting arguments for rejection?

§       Impact on Soviets of expected Senate rejection?

·       Incentive to keep détente alive?

Ř    Nicaragua:

§       Role of Somoza & his corrupt government;

§       Role of FSLN (Sandinistas);

·       Take over & postponement of free elections;

§       Carter’s slow realization of Nicaragua’s new direction:

·       Contras & convert funding;

¨     Future actions to support Contras left to Reagan;

Ř    Long Range Tactical Nuclear Weapons (LRTNF):

§       Type weapon & range of LRTNF?

§       NATO position & why it holds this position – threat?

§       Soviet reactions & ultimate disposition of deployment?

Ř    Iran & America held hostage:

§       Pro-western island of stability lost of revolution;

§       Impact on region & US interests;

§       Hostage Crisis:

·       Impact on Carter & the Nation;

·       Hostage Rescue attempt:

¨     Zbig vs. Vance on what to do;

·       Desert One & its Fallout:

¨     Vance’s response;

§       Significance of Iran’s loss to US?

·       Comparable to what;

·       Effect on Carter & his election prospects;

·       Reagan’s role;

Ř    Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan:

§       27 Dec ‘ 79: Soviets invade Afghanistan:

·       Soviet motive?

¨     Preserve Marxists regime of April ’78 coup;

¨     Coup had triggered Islamic resistance- called?

¨     USSR fears unrest & spread to Soviet Muslims;

·       Soviets install Karmal who request USSR’s assistance;

§       What is Carter’s reaction to Soviet invasion?

§       Carter’s reaction to Soviet invasion – shock:

·       Feels totally betrayed;

·       Reacts emotionally => then overreacts –how?

·       Carter now receptive to whose advice?

§       Zbig’s hard line council:

·       Soviets pose direct threat to what US strategic interest?

·       Draws direct link to what past Carter action in Africa?

§       Carter’s extreme policy & national security Strategy shift:

·       Scraps détente & restores what & restores what policy?

·       Cuts back sharply on technology trade with Soviets;

·       Embargo’s US grain sales (impact on US farmers);

·       Withdraws from what major international event?

·       Request Senate to postpone consideration of what?

§       Impact: US returns to the bad ‘ole days of the Cold War:

·       Carter State of Union address – major policy statement?

¨     Carter Doctrine: what does doctrine state?

Ř    What vital US interest in Persian Gulf  will Carter defend “by all means available” – to include:

Ř    Military force => RDJTF + register for draft;

·       Also request plus up of 5% in military spending;

·       Carter then plays “China Card” (how?) & also repairs previously strained relations – with who?

Ř    Zbig’s Rise in Power & Influence:

§       Vance disagreed w/Carter’s extreme reactions above;

·       Against rapid decline in détente into open hostility;

·       Held SALT II & other issues should not be sacrificed;

§       Zbig’s  influence outflanked Vance on Carter’s decisions:

·       What did Vance do in response? – timing?

§       Who replaced Vance?

·       Did new secretary of state change anything?

¨     Lack of knowledge or consultation in PD-59;

Ř    What was the goal & effect of PD-59?

§       NATO’s reaction to formation of the RDJTF? - Why?

§       How did Western European States comply with US trade

    sanctions against the Soviet Union?

§       Impact of Carter’s policies on US stature in Europe?

§       How did this guy get elected president?

Ř    Demise of Arms Control:

§       Carter attempted to resume arms control talks:

·       Motivation: upcoming elections & NATO pressure;

§       Announced US would abide by SALT II if Soviets did too;

§       Soon, however, all related Nuke Weapons talks deadlock;

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