CW 4-5

· Geneva Accords:

¨ July’54: temporary settlement achieved:

Ø French recognize independence of:

§ Cambodia and Laos;

Ø Vietnam partitioned at 17^th parallel;

§ (until elections scheduled for June ’56);

§ Communist control North – Hanoi:

· Led by Ho Chi Minh;

§ Non-communist minority in South- Saigon;

· Boa Dai installed by French as ruler;

¨ US & South Vietnam refuse to accept accords:

Ø Provides military assistance to new president;

¨ By 1956: US replaced French as SVN’s protector;

Ø US military advisors train SVN’s army;

Ø $1.2 B in military assistance between 1954-59;

§ US bears 80% of military & 50% econ costs;

· Indochina: Ike to prevent Communists take-over:

¨ Ike convinces PM Diem to cancel elections for ‘56:

Ø Concluded that Ho Chi Minh would win – why?

Ø Diem holds phony National Referendum instead;

Ø 98% approve removal of Bao Dai & estab. RVN;

¨ North commences infiltration into South;

Ø J.F. Kennedy & Vietnam (1961-1964):

§ US role expands during JFK’s presidency:

· As Senator – JFK against US involvement;

· What changed his mind?

§ By the time JFK became president:

· He accepted Ike’s Domino Theory;

· NVN victory at Dien Bien Phu growing concern;

· Potential for expanded influence of China in SEA;

· Mao’s GW strategy appeared more & more validated;

§ JFK’s belief about how to prevent Communist take-over?

· Counter-Insurgency believed best way to save SVN;

· Result: sends military advisors with CI expertise;

¨ Green Berets (SF) a small number of SEALs;

Ø Ike: 700 to JFK : 16,700 by Nov ’63;

Ø Assist SVN SOF in CI in South Vietnam;

Ø Covert raids in North & Ho Chi Minh Trail;

· JFK also approved CIA supported coup against Diem;

¨ US involvement grows significantly from then on;

§ What motivated JFK to escalate US involvement?

§ Kennedy’s Motivation to escalate US involvement:

· Fear of South Vietnam’s collapse during his tenure:

¨ (without US assistance to prevent it);

¨ Viet Cong held 80% of countryside by 1961;

Ø How? Empowered peasants to seize land;

· JFK feared he could not afford to lose Vietnam:

¨ Cast by GOP opponents as soft on communism:

Ø Bay of Pigs, Berlin Wall, neutralized Laos;

· JFK made strong case to Congress, media & public:

¨ SF could handle Vietnam conflict;

¨ Vietnam’s coastline also enables USN support;

· JFK also prepared to send conventional forces:

¨ Diem declined but reconsidered by Oct ‘61– why?

Ø Pentagon Papers: SVN military sit. Desperate;

¨ JFK changed mind by then – Berlin Crisis:

Ø Insufficient military forces for both crises;

Ø SF would have to make due instead;

§ Debated Question:

· Would JFK have withdrawn SF during his 2^nd term?

· Debate – two sides argue disagreement:

¨ Bartlett: says JFK concluded US could not win:

¨ But JFK couldn’t win re-election if he gave up;

¨ States 1000 advisors out by Dec ’63 &

Ø All by Dec ’65 (with what caveat?);

¨ Rusk: JFK not prepared to withdraw advisors;

Ø Committed to SVN generals involved in coup;

Ø Promised US assistance (no Bay of Pigs replay);

§ JFK laid foundation for expanded US involvement:

· Flexible Response Strategy;

· Military build-up to implement that strategy;

· Counter-Insurgency (CI) program with SF advisors;

§ How did above contribute to expanded US involvement?

Ø Johnson’s role in expanding US involvement in Vietnam:

§ Vietnam War is considered a national tragedy – why?

· Extreme cost in Blood & Treasure:

¨ 58,000 Americans died – Billions to pay for it;

· Divided the Nation not seen since Civil War:

¨ Burden unevenly shared:

Ø College students & economically well off:

§ Anti-war & anti-military for most part;

Ø Drafted poor serving with few of the above:

§ Disillusioned with time;

· Destructive impact on economy &domestic programs;

¨ LBJ’s War on Poverty;

¨ Escalating costs of War ($2 Billion/month by 1967);

¨ Growth of US debt and deficit:

Ø Future impact on economic growth (or lack of);

¨ Undermined Nation’s belief in it military:

Ø “Light at the end of the tunnel”?

Ø (and in the military’s belief in itself):

Ø physical & mental affect on Vietnam Vets;

· Longer term foreign policy impact:

¨ US experience creates the Vietnam Syndrome (?);

§ Difficulty in resolving the War’s strategic disconnect:

· Tactical victory on battle field – contrasted with:

· Strategic & Political defeat – (how can this be?);

§ LBJ & US escalation in Vietnam:

· Determined to check Communist expansion in SEA;

· Nov ’63 – July ‘65: LBJ expands US limited assistance;

¨ Open ended commitment[

¨ US military takes over offensive ops by 1968:

Ø Conventional US troops rise to 530,000;

§ LBJ’s motivation to expand US military commitment:

· Concludes SVN will collapse without expansion;

· Conservative backlash if LBJ “loses” Vietnam:

¨ Allusion to what past loss under Democrat leader?

¨ LBJ: “might as well give up everywhere!”

Ø Berlin, Japan, South America;

§ Opportunity knocks in Aug ’64- Tonkin Gulf incident:

· NVN PT boat attack on Maddox & Turner Joy;

· Tactical event exploited for strategic/political purpose;

· The devil in the details: What really happened?

¨ Covert Operations previously underway:

Ø Maritime SOF attack NVN radar sites;

Ø Purpose: activation of ELINT emissions (why)?

§ Gulf of Tonkin Resolution (8/64):

· Pretext for expansion (already decided);

· Result? Blank Check “to take all necessary actions”:

¨ Congress approval: House: 416-0 Senate: 81 to 2;

Ø Resolution’s future implications & use by LBJ?

· LBJ waits to use this virtual declaration of war – why?

¨ What domestic event is about to take place?

§ Rolling Thunder:

· Feb 1965 – VC attack Pleiku USA barracks – 9 US kia;

· LBJ responds with sustained air campaign;

· March: first ground troops wade ashore at DaNang:

¨ USMC: 2 Battalion Landing Teams;

§ Based out of Camp Tien Sha near Monkey Mtn;

· Despite bombing – VC gain several victories in South:

¨ Capture one Provincial capitol after another;

¨ RVN military on verge of collapse;

· LBJ concludes must send more ground troops:

¨ July: deploys 50K more troops;

¨ Authorizes Westmoreland to take offensive;

¨ US military takes on major role from then on:

Ø Assumes primary burden to block VC in South;

§ Extending Gulf of Resolution’s power:

· Secretly promises 50K more troops by December;

¨ Decides not to request Congressional okay – why?

§ LBJ’s Domestic Agenda – Butter vs. Guns:

· LBJ attempts to protect his War on Poverty- how?

· Ultimate outcome?

Ø Flawed Strategy:

§ Gradual escalation & limited War Theorists;

· Centralized incremental targeting;

· Presidential approval required;

§ Impact on North? Accommodated adjustment:

· Disperse population & economic resources;

· Develop SAM sites w/China & USSR support;

§ US actions to stop North’s re-supply unsuccessful:

· Interdiction of Ho Chi Minh Trail mixed:

¨ Diplomatic complications & political concerns;

¨ Covert actions against trail;

§ Westy’s War of Attrition Strategy:

· Conventional Search & Destroy operations;

· Conventional approach vs. UW approach;

· Major flawed assumption: North would respond!

§ NVN willing to use up as many troops as it takes:

· More than US could “attrite;”

· More KIAs than America willing to accept in return;

· Also entirely different philosophy toward war:

¨ Sun Tzu vs. Clauswitz;

§ Also USSR & China provide $$$ & military support:

· Both compete to outdo their support;

· Offset losses from US bombings:

¨ 1965-68: $2Billion;

¨ NVN easily repair or replace US damage;

· China provided 300K “advisors;”

¨ SAM site technicians;

¨ 4000 KIA;

§ Strategic Impact of China’s involvement?

· US deterred from invading North;

¨ Conducts limited war (no more Koreas);

· LBJ limited US participation to South:

¨ Confined US military to war of attrition;

· North Vietnam was destined to win such a contest-why?

Ø Failed Diplomacy- USSR & Vietnam War linkage:

· After initial rejection by USSR on improved relations:

¨ USSR reconsiders & offers to help US w/NVNs;

Ø Propose a plan aimed at bringing about talks;

· Wilson-Kosygin Plan (early 1967):

¨ Bring North Vietnam to bargaining table;

¨ Marigold: US stop bombing North in return;

Ø (private assurance by NVA to stop infiltration)

§ down Ho Chi Minh trail to key RVN areas;

¨ If Hanoi’s agrees – US to freeze its combat levels;

¨ Following accomplishment of above –talks begin;

§ US response to Soviet reversal of earlier position?

· Too late by time Soviets accept Wilson’s initiative;

· US lose interest in Marigold plan – Why?

¨ NVA still infiltrated thru US bombing halt (Tet”68);

¨ US insists NVA halt infils prior to any bombing halt;

§ Result? Stalemate all around;